Will the French team win this year’s World Cup championship? How will the funds in Gate’s prediction market vote?

As of June 9, 2026, based on Gate's predicted market access on-chain data from Polymarket, France has a 16% chance of winning the championship, tied for first place in the current market with Spain. England follows closely at 11%, while Brazil and Argentina are at 8% each. This data reflects real funds wagered by global users in USDT, providing a real-time market judgment on the championship outcome.

Other mainstream prediction models worldwide also give similar assessments. Goldman Sachs, analyzing nearly 20k international matches since 1978 through 50k Monte Carlo simulations, concludes: Spain 26%, France 19%, Argentina 14%, Brazil 8%. The championship probability distribution from Opta’s supercomputer is Spain 16.1%, France approximately 13% to 19%. In traditional odds markets, Spain leads with 4.00 to 4.50 times, France ranks second with 4.30 to 5.00 times, and England is third at about 6.5 times.

Six major AI models’ predictions for the champion are completely consistent: all point to Spain, believing that their young squad, possession-based system, and smooth transition between old and new players are the biggest advantages. However, these six AI models also unanimously predict the top scorer—Kylian Mbappé. If France advances further, Mbappé not only has a chance to claim his second World Cup Golden Boot but also to challenge the all-time record of 16 goals held by Miroslav Klose. Regarding the championship winner, mainstream opinions believe the title will be decided between Spain and France.

France’s Fundamentals: Strengths, Concerns, and Key Fixtures

In terms of squad strength, France’s roster is undoubtedly formidable. Kylian Mbappé leads the attack, having scored 12 goals across two World Cups, with this being his third. The defensive line and midfield depth are equally robust, with tournament experience of one championship and one runner-up in the last two World Cups unmatched.

But concerns are also evident. On June 5, in a warm-up match against Ivory Coast, France unexpectedly lost 1-2. Ivory Coast scored the decisive goal in the 84th minute from a substitute. On June 9, in a warm-up against Northern Ireland, France won 3-1, but Mbappé had six shots with zero on target and wasted multiple one-on-one opportunities, continuing a streak of three consecutive matches without scoring for the national team. France’s historically prolific front line has recently gone silent, adding uncertainty to their championship prospects.

Additionally, Group F is no easy path. France is grouped with Senegal, Norway (led by Haaland), and Iraq, considered a “group of death” favorite. Norway boasts a “golden generation” with Haaland, Ødegaard, and others, having double-victory over Italy in qualifiers, with formidable attacking power. To go far, France must quickly adjust and perform at their best in the group stage.

Key fixtures: June 17, first match against Senegal. The knockout stage begins with the Round of 32 on June 29, with the final scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Spain Leads: An Unignorable Top Contender

France’s biggest rival is undoubtedly Spain. As the reigning 2024 European Championship champions, with young stars like Pedri and Gavi proving themselves in major tournaments, and with Goldman Sachs and Opta models both favoring them, Spain remains the top predicted team across major prediction platforms. Gate’s prediction market data shows Spain and France tied at 16%, reflecting market expectations of a duel between the two giants. From a fundamental perspective, Spain’s midfield control and balanced squad provide a solid foundation for winning; France, on the other hand, has an edge in individual attacking talent and tournament experience.

How Does Gate Enable Users to Predict the Champion with USDT?

Prediction markets are a type of market structure that facilitates trading based on future event outcomes. Unlike traditional bookmakers, where odds are set unilaterally by the house, Gate’s integration with Polymarket uses blockchain-based event contracts: users buy and sell shares on outcomes like “Spain wins,” “France wins,” or “England wins,” with prices directly reflecting the market consensus on probabilities, free from bookmaker manipulation.

As of early June, the total trading volume on Polymarket for the “2026 World Cup Champion” event has exceeded $908 million, making it the largest single event in sports prediction markets. In March, the monthly user count in prediction markets increased by 118% year-over-year, reaching 865,411 users.

For Gate users, participation is extremely straightforward:

• Access the prediction market page directly via the Gate App, using USDT in their account to participate
• Smart monitoring automatically tracks strategies of “smart money,” whales, and other key players
• Gate also launched the “Football Prophet” themed event, with a total prize pool exceeding 500,000 USDT, covering all 104 World Cup matches

Top Contenders for the Championship

| Team | Gate Prediction Market Winning Probability | Fundamental Tags | Key Highlights | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spain | 16% | 2024 European Champion, possession system solid | Midfield control + young squad | | France | 16% | Recent winners and runners-up, led by Mbappé | Tournament experience + attacking talent | | England | 11% | Deep squad | Tactical improvements, historical pressure as challenges | | Brazil | 8% | Traditional powerhouse, strong attack | Stability remains a major question mark | | Argentina | 8% | Defending champions, Messi’s final dance | Rich experience, strong cohesion |

England’s 11% chance of winning keeps them firmly in the third tier. Brazil and Argentina, both at 8%, are tied for fourth.

From dark horse perspectives, Norway, Mexico, and Senegal are frequently listed by media as potential spoilers.

Summary

Gate’s prediction market data shows France with a 16% chance of winning, tied for first with Spain. The market’s real-money bets reflect a clear judgment—France and Spain are the top favorites for this World Cup, with the championship likely to be decided between these two teams.

Fundamentally, France’s squad strength and tournament experience are unquestioned. However, recent warm-up performances have been poor, especially Mbappé’s finishing touch, adding uncertainty to their title defense. Facing a “group of death,” whether they can quickly regain form will be a critical test in the first round.

For users eager to participate while watching, Gate’s prediction market offers an accessible USDT participation channel and a prize pool of 500,000 USDT. Regardless of who ultimately lifts the trophy, betting on the World Cup champion with USDT has become one of the most popular ways to engage in the tournament within the crypto community.