Bearish (Suppressing Gold Prices)

• Federal Reserve rate hike expectations soar: May non-farm payrolls 172k (expected 85k), unemployment rate 4.3%; market bets on over 76% chance of rate hikes before December, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields surpass 4.5%, greatly increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

• U.S. dollar strength + capital outflows: U.S. dollar index rebounds, gold ETFs continue to redeem (net outflow of $2 billion in May), institutional funds shift to U.S. Treasuries.

• Persistent inflation + high oil prices: U.S. CPI remains high, Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, inflation concerns persist, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Bullish (Supporting Gold Prices)

• Global central banks continue to accumulate gold: 16 consecutive years of net purchases, Q1 2026 net purchase of 244 tons (highest in five years); China's central bank has increased holdings for 19 consecutive months, forming strong support at $4,200–$4,300.

• Geopolitical risks remain: Middle East tensions fluctuate, U.S.-Iran game, intermittent safe-haven demand.

III. Technical Analysis (Trend and Key Levels)

• Trend: Daily chart is in a mid-term downtrend, retreating from the high of $5,500 in March, dominated by bears.