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Bitcoin dropped 14% last week after breaking down from an ascending channel.
The structure looks a lot like the 2022 bear market. Back then, $BTC bottomed after a 78% dump. This cycle’s correction is 53% so far.
So where’s the bottom?
In the last 3 cycles, BTC found strong support at the weekly 200 MA twice and started a new bull run after testing it for a few weeks. If the 200 WMA holds, $59,100 could be the cycle bottom.
But there’s more.
In past cycles, BTC bottomed almost exactly one year after the bull market top. If that repeats, the bottom lands in October 2026.
And historically, BTC has seen 60%+ corrections after the death cross, which would put this cycle’s bottom near $39,000.
Right now it all comes down to the 200 WMA. If BTC loses it, the next stop could be $50,000 or lower.