Daily Prediction - Which political party will win the majority seats in the Senate in 2026?

Continuing to share daily predictions, this event was discovered last night, and the score is quite high, 120 points/hour
And because the election results will be announced on November 3rd, the first few months are during the candidate determination phase, with overall smaller fluctuations
So you can confidently earn points for a few months, sharing with everyone
Regarding the prediction of this event, some points to note include:
🔹 The settlement is based on the control party of the U.S. Senate as of November 3rd
🔹 The current Senate majority seats are held by the Republican Party, with 100 seats in total, Republicans have 53 seats, Democrats 47 seats (including 2 independents)
🔹 Democrats need to net gain at least 4 seats to flip and take power, i.e., reach 51 seats or more
🔹 There are 35 seats up for election this year, among which Republicans hold 22 seats, Democrats 13 seats, and these seats are also the ones that need to be defended (possibly lost) in this election
🔹 Republicans need to defend more seats, but Democrats have vulnerable states (easier for opponents to take)
🔹 Primary season - until around late August, generally during the primary phase, mainly to determine candidates, with smaller fluctuations during this period (but not zero)
🔹 The heated season, roughly September to October, is the intense campaign phase, mainly debates, advertising battles, early voting, etc., with larger fluctuations during this stage
🔹 Election Day, November 3rd
Personal trading strategy
Place buy limit orders in both directions for both parties
Order placement is generally just ahead of the solid order book, but usually avoiding the first bid position, mainly around the second or third bid
Early on, fluctuations are small, but they can still occur, so plan to check the probability changes of both sides weekly and adjust order placement accordingly
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