Song Xiqing: Welfare basket keeps flying! Keep watching 55k—this rebound is just a “pause” tactic after oversold conditions

The real-time offer welfare basket given last night: entered at 63k, added at 64k, and now everyone has gotten something. This month’s target remains unchanged—continue to watch 55k. This rebound is the “pause” squeeze-and-repair after oversold conditions, not a reversal driven by incremental capital inflow. Under panic sentiment and macro pressure, the selling pressure above is still very heavy.

With the U.S. May nonfarm payroll data coming in above expectations, global liquidity is tightening at the margin, and rate-hike expectations from the Federal Reserve have risen again. The Middle East geopolitical conflict is repeating; safe-haven sentiment is strong. Funds trapped at high levels have led to the rebound facing a very large overhang of sell pressure.

Although the chart shows a V-shaped reversal, it is clearly a stagnation pattern with increased volume. The “pause” side relies on news to hit the resistance level but failed to break through; the volume can’t keep up, so a pullback is needed in the short term. In addition, the 4-hour moving averages are suppressing the “pause” side, and overall the market is still in a slightly “pause” channel.

Trading suggestions:
BTC: Consolidate around 65k-63.5k, cut loss if above 67k, target toward 58k-55k (below).

ETH: Consolidate around 1750-1700, cut loss if above 1800, target toward 1600-1550 (below).

Note:
The above analysis is Song Xiqing’s personal analysis. The market changes in an instant; the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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