Goldman Sachs AI Model World Cup Championship Predictions: Spain 26% at the top, France 19%, Argentina 14%.

As the 2026 USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup kicks off on June 11, Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs released a quantitative prediction report in early June 2026.
In the latest report, Goldman Sachs' Economic Research Department used statistical and big data models to simulate 50k times for 104 matches in this tournament.
The results show that the Spanish national team has a 26% chance of winning, ranking first; France is close behind at 19%, and defending champion Argentina is third with 14%.
The model is based on Poisson distribution and Monte Carlo simulations, incorporating data from nearly 20k international matches since 1978.
Goldman Sachs' model introduces four laws: the "World Number One Curse" where the top-ranked FIFA team has never won the championship;
The "Top Three Law" where the highest winning probability team is most likely to win;
Core tactical replication based on key players from top clubs;
And the geographical factor that European or South American teams have higher win rates in their home regions.
Considering these conditions, Spain, with an average age close to the historical champion average (26.65 years), has the highest fit; while Argentina, with an average age of 28.91 years, is slightly older and discounted due to being the reigning champion, ranking third in probability.
However, such quantitative predictions have repeatedly failed in history.
Before the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Goldman Sachs' model predicted Brazil to win, but Brazil was eliminated in the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, peer predictions also vary; a survey of 160 economists worldwide by Reuters showed France leading with 35% support, followed by Spain at 31%.