Technical Outlook: ETH Holding Macro Support — Relief Bounce Attempt Underway

Ethereum is attempting to stabilize after a sharp selloff into the major $1,540–$1,560 support zone. Following an aggressive liquidity sweep below recent lows, buyers have stepped in near macro support, triggering a modest recovery. However, the broader market structure remains bearish, and ETH continues to trade beneath all major trend-defining moving averages.

While short-term momentum is improving from deeply oversold conditions, bulls still face several important resistance levels before any meaningful trend reversal can be confirmed.

📈 EMA Structure (Bearish, But Short-Term Recovery Attempt)

20 EMA: $1,898.90

50 EMA: $2,059.28

100 EMA: $2,189.76

200 EMA: $2,442.08

Price remains below all major EMAs ❌

20 EMA continues acting as immediate dynamic resistance

50 EMA and 100 EMA remain key recovery barriers

200 EMA confirms the broader macro downtrend

👉 ETH must reclaim the EMA cluster to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.

📐 Fibonacci & Market Structure

Price remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,298.74

Macro bearish structure remains intact

Recent bounce developed from the major cycle support zone

No higher high has been established yet

👉 If recovery continues, upside targets include:

$1,697 → Initial resistance

$1,716 → Local supply zone

$1,899 → 20 EMA resistance

$2,299 → 0.236 Fibonacci resistance

👉 Failure to maintain the current recovery may expose:

$1,624 support

$1,540 macro support

$1,390 liquidity zone

🧠 ICT / Smart Money View

Recent downside move swept significant sell-side liquidity

Price reacted from a major demand area

Fair Value Gap (FVG) remains overhead and largely unfilled

No confirmed bullish market structure break yet

Current move appears to be a relief bounce within a broader downtrend

👉 Smart money confirmation requires a bullish displacement and break above nearby supply zones.

📉 RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 28.7

Recovering from extreme oversold conditions ⚠️

Momentum remains weak despite the bounce

Seller control has eased, but buyers have not yet regained dominance

👉 RSI suggests short-term recovery potential, though trend confirmation remains absent.

📊 Key Levels

🔴 Resistance

$1,697 → Immediate resistance

$1,716 → Local supply zone

$1,899 → 20 EMA

$2,059 → 50 EMA

🟢 Support

$1,624 → Near-term support

$1,540 → Critical macro support

$1,390 → Major downside liquidity zone

📌 Final Outlook

Ethereum is attempting to recover after defending the major $1,540 support region, but the broader trend remains bearish as price continues trading below all major EMA and Fibonacci resistance levels.

✅ Break & hold above $1,697–$1,716 → could open the path toward $1,899 → $2,059

❌ Rejection below resistance and loss of $1,624 → increases the probability of a retest of $1,540

❌ Breakdown below $1,540 → could expose $1,390 and lower liquidity zones

👉 The current bounce improves short-term sentiment, but ETH remains in a bearish market structure. Bulls need a decisive reclaim of the $1,697–$1,716 region before a larger recovery becomes technically credible. Until then, rallies may continue to face selling pressure.

$ETH ‌