Right now, the overall trend is moving downward, and the bears have the upper hand.

This isn’t just about the 16% drop over the past few days. The real issue is that the engine behind the 2024 to 2025 bull market—the U.S. institutions—has sputtered out.

Earlier, Bitcoin could rise from the lows to more than 120,000, not because retail traders were shouting orders and pushing it up, but because U.S. spot ETFs were buying every day. In the first quarter alone, more than 20 billion flowed in, driving the price higher by force. Now, that fire has been completely extinguished. Since June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, for a total of nearly $4.4 billion. Institutions aren’t just not buying anymore—they’re actually dumping.

The Federal Reserve is an even bigger driver. U.S. employment data for May came in much stronger than expected, and inflation isn’t coming down. The market had originally been counting on interest-rate cuts this year, but now it has flipped—people are starting to bet that there may be rate hikes by year-end. The dollar strengthens as a result, U.S. Treasury yields jump higher, and the logic for both institutions and retail investors is simple: rather than holding something like Bitcoin with no interest, why not buy U.S. Treasuries and earn interest? Big institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have led the way in pulling funds out of the crypto space and shifting them into the U.S. stock AI sector. With stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft rallying hard, capital naturally flows there.

The market itself also has serious problems. In early June, this run of continuous plunges liquidated tens of thousands of accounts across the network. In just one day, more than $1.2 billion in long positions were cleared. It became a “kill more, kill more” cycle—everyone stepping on everyone else in a stampede. Whoever ran late ended up being the one left to take the fall. Most importantly, even true long-term holders couldn’t hold up this time. In the entire network, more than half of all Bitcoin is currently in a loss. Even whales have started to sell at a loss to offload.

There’s another signal many people overlook: Strategy—that used to be MicroStrategy. After four years, for the first time, it sold 32 Bitcoin to pay dividends. The number sounds small, but it has long been the benchmark of “never sell.” Once that headline broke, market sentiment was hit hard by a heavy blow.

So, will the price fall until it stops at some point? It’s not like there’s absolutely no floor. There’s an on-chain indicator called CVDD. It mapped out three major bottoms in advance: 2015, 2018, and 2022. It has only just entered the bottom zone, and around 60,000 there really are buyers stepping in. But the problem is that the logic behind this drop is different from before. In 2018 and 2022, the causes were exchange blowups and internal problems within the crypto industry, and the repair took a long time. This time, the driver is a deterioration in the macro environment. It’s not that everyone no longer believes in Bitcoin—it’s that, right now, there are more attractive choices. So once the dollar weakens or rate-cut expectations rise, money can come back in quickly.

Putting all factors together, this is a typical demand-depletion decline: it’s not that someone is desperately smashing the sell button—it’s that nobody is buying. Once the 60,000 level is broken decisively, the next most likely landing spot is the February low, around 52,000. Unless the Federal Reserve comes out with a soft comment next week, or ETFs suddenly start seeing inflows again, the grind-down and bottoming process will most likely continue for a while. #比特币ETF单日净流出7272枚 $BTC