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I look at whether the project team is seriously working; I really don’t like hearing "vision," I prefer to see two things: where the treasury funds are spent, and whether the milestones are delivered on the schedule they promised. No matter how "reasonable" the spending is, if every month only involves community operations and PPT updates, it’s basically just prolonging the life; on the other hand, a steady proportion of expenses on R&D, audits, and infrastructure indicates at least they’re not just slacking off.
As for milestones, don’t pay attention to those vague "Q3 ecosystem launch" claims. I focus on verifiable things: code changes, testnet version iterations, bug fix speed, and whether the documentation is keeping up. Recently, everyone’s been earning testnet points again, guessing daily whether the mainnet will issue tokens. My experience is just constantly refreshing/retrying/queuing… But honestly, for the long term, don’t just look at point screenshots. Check whether they’ve actually implemented the promised features one by one. An unfulfilled "roadmap" is the cheapest product.