1. Market Price and Intraday Trends

Yesterday, during the US session, linked to the weakness of US stocks and impacted by short-term whale sell-offs, Bitcoin broke through the key psychological level of 60k USDT, dropping to a low of 59,099 USDT, triggering a large-scale margin call liquidation; intraday in the Asian session, there was a slight recovery from lows, but with no volume, the rebound was weak, and the entire day’s trading range was 59,100 to 61,800, with short-term resistance around 61,000, fluctuating sideways.

24-hour trading volume shrank, the fear index at 29 indicates fear, and market short-term bullish confidence is relatively weak.

2. Technical Analysis

Short-term (1h/4h)

1. The 4-hour moving averages are all in a bearish alignment, with short-term resistance levels at 61,500 and 63,000; only a break above 63,000 can alleviate the short-term downtrend;

2. Short-term support: first support at 59,000 (intraday low), a valid break below would target the 56,000–57,000 support zone; 60,000 is the psychological dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment in the short term;

3. Indicators: The 4-hour MACD shows a slight turnaround at low levels for minor recovery, but the daily MACD continues downward in a bearish trend, indicating medium-term weakening.

Daily/Weekly Charts

The weekly decline exceeded 16%, marking the largest weekly pullback of the year, with prices breaking below the short-term moving averages MA20 and MA30. Resistance above has shifted down to 68,000 (weekly bullish/bearish dividing line). Before recovery, the larger cycle remains bearish.

3. Fundamentals

1. Bearish factors: US spot ETFs have experienced phased net outflows, with some institutions reducing holdings during rebounds; US stock tech sector volatility has dragged down crypto risk appetite, with short-term funds fleeing high-risk assets; Strategy’s small BTC reductions have triggered panic selling and amplified declines;

2. Bullish factors: Standard Chartered maintains a year-end target of 100k USD, with no large-scale liquidation of spot ETF holdings, and mid- to long-term institutional positions remain stable; whale accumulation data at low levels steadily rises, gradually entering institutional allocation zones around 60,000;

3. Macro environment: The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations fluctuate, with the US dollar temporarily strong, suppressing commodities and cryptocurrencies.