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MicroStrategy selling BTC is a short-term bearish signal and a catalyst in a downtrend, but in my view, it’s actually a positive for MicroStrategy itself. Any positive news at this point would be interpreted the same way, because the decline isn’t caused by someone calling a sell or a specific news trigger, or even today’s SPX plunge, but because it’s in a downward trend.
For me, I need to buy based on the trend and consider the risk-reward ratio. From the current price breaking below $60k, it might actually be a better point to set a stop-loss, while long-term bottom-fishing requires considering whether “BTC has returned to an uptrend” or has become sufficiently ignored.
Obviously, besides SPCX this month, there’s also the World Cup betting leading to capital outflows, and then the SPX retracement, which could make tech stocks reappear as attractive golden opportunities. So bottom-fishing for BTC is undoubtedly an unappetizing option.
Finally, STRC is also not worth bottom-fishing now. Will it return to the pegged price? I think a return to 100 is highly probable. MSTR has to pay interest when selling BTC, so how could STRC be unstable? Even in a liquidation, you can still get BTC. But with only about 10% upside, and a 10% correction in tech stocks, it becomes less attractive.