#ETH跌幅超5%

Short-term caution, long-term allocation is still possible

June 5th, the bullish faith continues to collapse, ETH has fallen 5.58% in 24 hours, breaking below $1800, with a low of $1734; BTC also came under pressure, breaking below the $63,000 mark. The total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours astonishingly exceeded $1.1 billion, with bulls in despair. Little财神 believes that the suffering days for bulls may continue for a while, but the position for medium- and long-term investors to buy the dip is getting closer!

1️⃣ Trend Analysis: There may still be room for short-term decline, medium- and long-term investors can start to buy

The current market is in a liquidity vacuum period after high leverage liquidations, not the start of a trend reversal. BTC fell below $63,000 on June 4th, with a low of $62,839; ETH dropped to $1,734, both hitting a key support zone in nearly three months. This round of decline is not driven by deteriorating fundamentals but is the result of a triple resonance of macro risk aversion + concentrated leverage liquidations + weak spot demand.

From a technical perspective, the market is currently in the final wave of a five-wave decline on the weekly chart. The ultimate target of this decline is most likely to break below the previous low of $59,900. Whether from the perspective of the decline cycle or price, we are already in the late stage of a bear market. For long-term investors on the left side, it may be time to consider entering the market. Of course, from a short-term perspective, the market remains bearish: the daily chart shows five consecutive down days, and both the 4-hour and daily moving averages are in a bearish alignment. MACD shows increasing green bars, while KDJ and RSI have corrected from yesterday’s oversold zone, indicating that the current position is just a short-term rebound after a sharp decline, a continuation of the downtrend, with further downside potential. I predict the market bottom may be around 55,000, which is also a key level for long-term investors to buy.

2️⃣ Practical Operations: Asset allocation and response strategies under extreme market conditions

The current market not only keeps falling but also exhibits high volatility and great risk. Those who cannot handle it may choose diversified asset allocation; US stocks and crude oil are good options. Last night, tech stocks in the US broadly corrected, making it a good time to buy the dip. For long-term investors buying Bitcoin and Ethereum dips, it’s advisable to allocate some short positions or put options to hedge risks.

Additionally, in extreme market conditions, strict discipline is essential: avoid “FOMO” and “revenge trading.”

‌Forbidden actions‌:

- Do not add long positions after a single-day decline of more than 5%;
- Do not double down to average down after losing 30%;
- Do not trust sensational social media claims that “the bottom has been reached.”

‌Recommended actions‌:

- Set‌ staggered entry trigger points: if BTC closes above $61,500 for three consecutive days and 24-hour volume rebounds above $4 billion, consider building positions in two tranches (each 10%);
- Use‌ limit orders instead of market orders to avoid slippage eating into capital;
- Review weekly at a fixed time,‌ avoid constantly watching the market‌, to prevent emotional interference.

‌Psychological preparation: Understand that “the market isn’t for winning, it’s for surviving”‌.

‌Fear and Greed Index‌ is currently at 23 (extreme fear), but historical data shows that when the index is below 25 and doesn’t rebound for three days, it often marks a golden window for long-term investors to enter.

‌Institutional behavior‌: The Cbase premium index remains negative, indicating that US spot demand has not yet recovered, and‌ the “smart money” has not yet entered‌. Currently, “buying the dip” is mostly retail traders’ self-comfort.

‌Real opportunities‌: Appear when‌ panic emotions subside, on-chain address net inflows increase, and options implied volatility drops below 50%—this may take 2–4 weeks.

‌Ultimate advice‌:

‌What you should do now isn’t predict the bottom, but ensure you survive until the next cycle’s top.‌

Use stablecoins to preserve capital, spot holdings to maintain confidence, and options to protect your bottom line.

The market never rewards the bravest, only the most patient.