#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

Blue-chip stocks make a strong comeback, AI stocks face sell-offs—US stock market style shifts again

June 4th, the three major US stock indices showed a “polarized” structural divergence: the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.73% to 51,561.93 points, hitting a record high; the S&P 500 index slightly rose 0.41% to 7,584.31 points; the Nasdaq Composite slightly declined 0.09% to 26,830.96 points. The market’s core drivers are capital rotation and sentiment recovery:

Tech stocks under pressure: Broadcom was sold off after its FY2027 AI revenue guidance was not upgraded, dropping over 12% in a single day, dragging down the chip sector (Micron Technology fell nearly 8%, AMD down 3.56%); AI concept stocks collectively pulled back, but Nvidia defied the trend, rising 1.94%.

Defensive sectors lead the rally: Funds flowed into lower-valued sectors like healthcare (+3.16%) and financials (+2.68%), with stocks like Blackstone and Hummana leading gains.

Macroeconomic disturbances: Middle East geopolitical risks pushed oil prices higher, combined with improved initial jobless claims data, triggering inflation concerns and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, causing short-term pressure on high-valuation growth stocks.

Technical indicator analysis

RSI indicator: Nasdaq RSI retreated to around 52, moving out of overbought territory, with neutral to weak momentum; S&P 500 RSI remains at 58, in a neutral to slightly bullish zone, with no clear overbought signals.

MACD pattern: Both major indices’ red bars are shrinking, bearish momentum is accumulating but no death cross has formed, indicating the short-term trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands: The bandwidth of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continues to narrow, volatility has fallen to near three-month lows, signaling the market is entering a consolidation phase, with direction depending on AI earnings data or policy signals.

Moving averages: The S&P 500 remains above the 50-day moving average (around 7,500 points) and the 200-day moving average (around 7,100 points), providing long-term support; Nasdaq is under pressure below the 50-day moving average (around 27,200 points) but has not broken below the 200-day moving average (around 25,000 points).

Key support and resistance levels

Support levels:

26,500 points (Nasdaq): previous low and options cluster area, short-term support line; breaking below may trigger algorithmic sell orders.

7,500 points (S&P 500): psychological level and lower boundary of the consolidation zone; if lost, it could drop to 7,400 points.

25,000 points (Nasdaq): 200-day moving average, a long-term strong support, institutional allocation baseline.

Resistance levels:

27,000 points (Nasdaq): previous high and 50-day moving average resistance; breaking through could target 27,500 points.

7,650 points (S&P 500): recent high and technical resistance zone; stabilizing above could aim for 7,800 points.

52,000 points (Dow Jones): new high, no clear resistance yet, but profit-taking should be watched.

Market outlook

Short-term (1-4 weeks): The market will oscillate around Nasdaq 26,500–27,000 points and S&P 7,500–7,650 points. Focus shifts to Q2 earnings reports of AI companies (like Nvidia, Microsoft) and the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting: if AI revenue exceeds expectations or rate cut signals are released, a rebound may be triggered; otherwise, geopolitical risks or worsening inflation data could deepen the correction.

Medium to long-term (6-18 months): The real conversion of AI capital expenditure is the core variable. Despite short-term corrections, the ecosystem barriers of tech giants (Microsoft, Google) remain intact, and the long-term logic of AI-driven productivity gains persists. Divergences among institutions are evident: optimistic views (like Goldman Sachs) maintain an S&P 8,000 target, believing earnings growth is undervalued; cautious views (like Bank of America) warn of “AI bubble” risks and delayed capital expenditure returns.

Trading suggestions

Short-term traders:
Try small positions within the Nasdaq 26,500–26,800 or S&P 7,500–7,550 range, with stop-losses below 26,200 or 7,450 points.
If Nasdaq breaks 27,000 or S&P 7,650, add positions with targets at 27,500 or 7,800.
Avoid highly volatile AI chip stocks; focus on segments with order support like memory (Micron) and optical modules.

Mid-term investors:
Layered positioning: allocate initial positions to AI infrastructure leaders (like Microsoft, Google), add on 3–5% pullbacks.
Hedging strategies: buy S&P 500 put options (strike 7,400) or Nasdaq put options (strike 26,000) to guard against systemic risks.

How will the US stock market develop? Can Nasdaq rally again? Are you optimistic about a tech rebound or the return of healthcare and financial stocks? Leave a comment and chat!