#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

Falling in quality during declines—Microsoft remains resilient amid a sharp drop in tech stocks

Microsoft (MSFT) stock closed at $428.05 on June 4, 2026 (Eastern Time), up slightly by 0.17%, with a trading volume of $11.55B and 26.9 million shares traded, maintaining a market capitalization of $3.18 trillion. Unlike Broadcom’s dramatic pullback that day, Microsoft’s stock did not experience a single-day plunge but showed resilience amid high-level oscillations, with market sentiment becoming more rational.

Market Summary

Microsoft’s stock price edged higher that day, driven not by earnings exceeding expectations but by a new phase of “expectation betting” on AI capital expenditures. Although the company’s Q3 financial report showed Azure revenue grew 24% year-over-year, and Copilot enterprise subscriptions surpassed 10 million, investors are experiencing short-term anxiety over the $190 billion AI infrastructure investment for the full year. Market concerns center on this spending continuing to suppress free cash flow and profit margins, putting pressure on valuation. However, demand side remains firm: Azure customer renewal rates stay above 95%, enterprise AI purchase orders continue to grow, indicating strong growth momentum. The current price more reflects the lag between “investment cycle” and “profit realization.”

Technical Indicator Analysis

RSI Indicator: Near 58, in a neutral to slightly strong zone, not entering overbought or oversold territory, indicating a relatively balanced bullish and bearish force with no clear reversal signals.

MACD Pattern: The red histogram has slightly shrunk but no death cross has appeared. Momentum has weakened but not reversed, showing that the short-term upward trend still exists, though the willingness to chase gains is waning.

Bollinger Bands: Price is running close to the middle band, with band width continuously narrowing, volatility has dropped to its lowest in nearly three months, indicating the market is entering a consolidation and buildup phase. The subsequent direction may depend on the pace of AI profit realization or Federal Reserve policy signals.

Moving Averages: The stock price remains stable above the 50-day moving average (422 USD), with the 200-day moving average (385 USD) providing solid long-term support. The technical structure remains intact.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels:

$425–427: The previous day’s low and the dense area of open options contracts, serving as a short-term bull-bear dividing line;

$415: The 200-day moving average and psychological round number, a break below may trigger algorithmic buy-in;

$390: The March 2026 platform low, representing the medium- to long-term institutional holding cost zone.

Resistance Levels:

$435–436: The day’s high and the concentrated area of options strike prices (5,000 call options), indicating short-term resistance;

$450: The May 2026 high, serving as a medium-term technical psychological level;

$480: The April 2026 previous high, a breakout could open a new upward space.

Market Outlook

Short-term (1–3 months): The stock will oscillate around $425–436, with low volatility. If the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts or Microsoft accelerates Copilot commercialization, a breakout upward may be triggered; otherwise, continued AI capital expenditure data exceeding expectations could lead to a new valuation correction.

Medium to Long-term (6–18 months): The core logic shifts to “profit realization.” Microsoft has built the most complete global AI infrastructure ecosystem—from Azure computing power, self-developed AI models (Phi-3, Phi-4), to Copilot productivity tools and GitHub developer ecosystem. As enterprise AI deployment enters a scaled application phase, starting from FY2027, AI-related revenue is expected to shift from “cost center” to “profit engine.” Institutions generally believe that the current stock price has not fully reflected this long-term value.

Trading Recommendations

Short-term traders:

Try a small position in the $425–427 range, with a stop-loss below $420;

If a volume-driven breakout above $436 occurs, add to the position, targeting $450–460;

Avoid chasing highs and be cautious of potential selling pressure near options expiration at $435.

Medium-term investors:

The current price is a strategic entry zone; it is recommended to build positions gradually, adding each time the price drops by 5%, holding until Q1 2027;

Consider buying put options with a strike price of $400 as a hedge to control downside risk.