Now $HYPE has already reached 74. At this time last week, it was still hovering in the 50s, but this week it directly kicked through the previous high—pushing nearly 40% in just two days.

Yesterday, the HYPG ETF from Grayscale officially launched. The management fee is 0.29%, the lowest among all HYPE ETFs. In three weeks, the U.S. market has rolled out three HYPE ETFs in a row. In May, the cumulative net inflow exceeded $132 million, while during the same period Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were seeing outflows. Institutions are competing to get on board. This is no longer something retail traders are playing with. HYPE’s market cap has also climbed to $16 billion—surpassing Dogecoin, and moving into the top 10 by crypto market cap. This is the second token since 2014 to break into the top 10 driven by DeFi.

What’s interesting is that the broader market this week has actually looked ugly. BTC has been trading around $70,000. ETH has fallen below 1,800. SOL has been pushed down to $72, back to levels seen in 2023. But HYPE is up 24% over the month, becoming one of the few among the top 20 assets that’s still rising. Technically, it has already formed a clear bull flag pattern. After breaking the previous high of 75.8, it moved straight into the price discovery phase. The next target points to $100, with analysts’ targets at 97 and 163.

The underlying logic is actually pretty solid. In May, Hyperliquid’s trading volume accounted for 6.6% of the global perpetual futures market share, hitting a new high. In the protocol’s first quarter, it repurchased $192 million worth of HYPE—using all of it from fee income. Total revenue for all of 2025 is projected at $857 million, and 99% goes into buybacks. This isn’t common in the crypto space: the more active the protocol is, the more the token becomes deflationary. Cash flow is directly piled onto the price, and institutions can read this ledger.

Of course, there are downsides too. On June 6, 530,000 HYPE will unlock, worth about $40 million, representing 0.24% of the circulating supply. The amount isn’t large, but short-term selling pressure is definitely coming. Also, SOL’s market cap is still $42 billion, while HYPE is only $16 billion—the gap can’t be closed in a single day. Arthur Hayes calling the trade is one thing, but to truly surpass SOL, you need to see whether the ecosystem can support it. Buybacks alone aren’t enough.

Getting in at this position feels uncomfortable. If you chase it, you’re afraid you’re at the top; if you don’t, you can’t help feeling jealous. My approach is to keep the core position unchanged, and if I really need to add, I’ll wait for a pullback around $64. The story isn’t over, but the odds right now aren’t like the one-week-ago situation of mindlessly picking up money.
#交易心得