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Wondering what happens if the economy is doing well? The truth is, it’s closely tied to our lives.
These days, most people are worried about the rising cost of living—whether it’s oil, food, water bills, or electricity. Big companies are starting to adapt by cutting employees. Stock markets around the world are gradually adjusting downward, and that’s why we have questions: Can we invest right now? When will be a good opportunity?
In fact, there are 6 economic indicators that can tell us what a good economy looks like—and whether we should make investment decisions. Let’s look at what these indicators are and why they matter.
The first is GDP, or Gross Domestic Product. It’s the figure that shows how fast our country is growing. It is calculated from spending by ordinary people, company investment, government spending, and exports and imports. If GDP is positive and keeps rising, it indicates the economy is growing better—which is a good sign that we may start accumulating investments. But if GDP is negative or declining, we should be more cautious and keep more cash.
The second is the unemployment rate. This number is released every month, and the lower it is, the better. If unemployment is low, it means most people have jobs, have money to spend, and can buy things. If this number keeps falling, it shows that companies are hiring more—which is a good sign. So, when the economy is good, the answer is that employment will increase.
Inflation is the figure that tells us how much prices of goods are rising. Inflation is caused by two main factors: higher production costs (such as expensive oil) or increased demand for goods. In the current situation, inflation in Thailand is rising because costs are higher, which isn’t good. But “healthy” inflation should be around 1–4%, because it helps stimulate the economy. The central bank tries to keep it at 2%. If inflation gets too high, returns from savings will be negative. Therefore, we need assets that can outperform inflation—such as stocks and gold.
The Consumer Confidence Index is based on asking ordinary people how they view the economy and whether they are likely to spend more. This index ranges from 0 to 100. If it’s above 50, people are confident. If it’s below 50, people are worried. If this index is good and keeps rising, then when the economy is doing well, the answer is that people will spend more and buy more.
The Business Confidence Index is similar to the consumer index, but instead it asks companies. It asks how they view their business and whether they plan to invest. If this index is good and rising, companies will be more willing to invest and expand their operations, which will keep the economy growing.
The final figure is the Private Sector Investment Index. It is measured by construction areas, sales of construction materials, imports of machinery, and sales of vehicles for investment purposes. If this figure keeps rising, it means companies are selling well, so they are confident enough to place more orders—producing more, buying more machinery, and expanding factories. If it declines, it means sales are getting harder, so companies will slow down investment.
Putting it all together: if the economy is good, what does it look like? GDP increases, unemployment decreases, inflation is at a healthy level, consumer and business confidence rises, and investment increases. These 6 figures are tools that help us see the bigger picture of the economy.
For anyone who wants to start investing, you should keep a close watch on these indicators, and also look at which industries and which companies show good prospects. That will translate into sustainable performance and profit growth. Wishing everyone great results from your investments!