Weak oscillation leaning bearish, rebound continues to face pressure

Overall, Bitcoin remains in a weak oscillation pattern during the day, with little fluctuation in the early session. It surged to around 76,100 but faced obvious resistance, then quickly fell back, with the lowest reaching around 75,310.

Although there was a short-term small rebound from the lows, the strength was weak, and volume was insufficient, making it far from an effective counterattack. Currently, the price is fluctuating around 75,900, with no signs of bullish momentum.

From the short-term structure, it’s clear that the market’s highs are gradually moving lower, with bearish pressure very evident. The key resistance zone now is between 77,000 and 77,500. If the rebound cannot gain volume and stabilize above this area, the weak trend will continue, and the price is likely to test support around 74,800 again.

Looking at the four-hour timeframe, the market is in a typical consolidation phase, brewing a direction without any clear trend. The price is slightly above the middle of the Vegas Channel, but the overall direction remains ambiguous and weak. The channel’s upper and lower bounds are narrowing, and recent volatility is decreasing.

Combined with open interest data, net short positions are negative, indicating that short positions dominate the market, and overall sentiment remains bearish.

Reviewing this four-hour trend, it’s clear that the current pattern formed a double top with a false breakout at 78,180, marking a complete top. A large bearish candle then smashed down, breaking multiple key supports, and the short-term bullish structure was immediately damaged. The rebound after the sharp decline has been very weak, with no strength to speak of.

The four-hour Vegas Three-Channel indicator is also turning downward, with the upper and middle bands pressing down on the price. Even if the price temporarily stays above the middle band, bullish momentum remains severely lacking.

Technical indicators also show weakness: MACD remains in a bearish trend, and KDJ is only slightly rebounding from low levels, with no strong reversal signals—just a weak correction.

The trading strategy is consistent: focus on shorting during the day, as every minor rebound presents a good opportunity for high-level short entries. If the price continues to stay below the middle band and cannot break above the upper band, the market will likely weaken further, testing support at the lower channel boundary. It is recommended to establish short positions around 76,000–76,500, with a target #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U of 74,800.