$TAO fell 87% from its peak, and every trader who called the bottom early paid for it.

The chart was never lying to them.
They just were not listening to it.
Here is what it is saying right now.
$TAO ran from $50 to $750, then collapsed to $100. That was not a dip. That was a destructive event.
The weekly kept printing lower highs and lower lows, and the downtrend did not care about subnets or dTAO mechanics or Covenant-72B.
It continued until the chart said stop.
The chart said stop at $100 with the largest volume bar in $TAO's entire history.
Every seller who wanted out got out in one candle.
Murphy calls this a selling climax. It does not mean buy immediately.
It means the aggressive selling that drove price from $750 to $100 exhausted itself completely and the character of the market changed permanently at that bar.
Price then recovered 179% from the low on expanding volume. Quiet bounces in downtrends are traps. This was not quiet.
Now look at where the price is sitting. The $280 to $300 zone was the base of the entire 2024 accumulation before $TAO ran to $750.
It became resistance on the way down. Murphy calls this role reversal and it is one of the most reliable phenomena in all of technical analysis.
The market has memory even when traders do not and $TAO is testing that memory from below right now.
Three things are happening on the weekly simultaneously for the first time since the bull peak.
The MACD has crossed above the signal line, confirming a macro momentum shift.
The RSI has reclaimed 50 after sitting below it for the entire downtrend, which is a regime change from bearish to neutral to bullish.
And price is sitting directly at the most critical horizontal level on the chart. Three signals in one week on one candle.
The Fibonacci levels give you the roadmap.
Measuring the full cycle from $50 to $750, the key levels of overhead are $395, $470, and $540.
Getting through each of those on volume is what a real recovery looks like. Failing at them is what a bull trap looks like.
One thing most $TAO traders keep getting wrong. They read the hourly and make weekly decisions.
The primary trend lives on the weekly.
A bounce on the hourly means nothing if the weekly disagrees, and most of the painful bottom calls in 2024 and 2025 came from exactly that mistake.
The chart already knows about Covenant-72B, validator yields, and dTAO mechanics.
Whatever smart money thinks about those catalysts is already in the price.
Watch what price does at key levels after news drops. The reaction is always more honest than the headline.
The levels that matter. Weekly close above $300 is the first real confirmation.
$320 is the next resistance. $395 is the first major Fibonacci level. $253 is this week's low and first support.
Below $200 on volume, everything gets reassessed.
$TAO is not confirmed bullish. But the weekly is showing the clearest reversal signals since the $750 peak. Selling climax at $100.
179% recovery on volume. MACD crossover. RSI regime change. Price at critical resistance. All of it in the same week.
The traders who survived the 87% drawdown with dry powder are the ones who sized correctly on the way in.
The AI narrative does not move your stop. Size to the chart and not to your conviction.
The weekly close above or below $300 this week tells you everything.
The chart does not care how you feel about Bittensor.
It only speaks in levels, volume, and time, and the people who learn that language always know before the crowd does.
Screenshot the levels.
$TAO @opentensor
Murphy TA Framework @2xnmore | The Analyst