#TradFi交易分享挑战 5.24 Gold Technical Analysis and Next Monday's Market Outlook

What recent news factors are influencing gold and crude oil trends? How should we assess the bullish or bearish prospects for gold in the near future?
Saturday (May 23), as of the week ending May 19, speculative positions showed significant divergence. Speculators in the energy sector notably increased net long positions in crude oil, while in precious metals, gold and silver net longs shrank simultaneously, and copper saw a slight increase. In the foreign exchange market, the euro maintained a net long position, while the yen, pound, and Swiss franc continued to hold net short positions. U.S. Treasury holdings showed a maturity-based divergence, with short-term T-bills reducing net short positions, and medium- to long-term net shorts increasing. Most agricultural commodities saw speculators reduce long exposure or cut short positions, indicating a cautious adjustment overall. Data shows market participants are rebalancing positions across different asset classes, reflecting divergent macroeconomic expectations.
Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, gold performed weakly this week. As the market re-commits to expectations of future Federal Reserve rate hikes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and oil prices fueling inflation concerns, gold prices remained under pressure, briefly falling to a three-week low. Meanwhile, although U.S.-Iran negotiations released some positive signals, key disagreements remain unresolved, keeping the market highly alert to global inflation and interest rate outlooks.
Gold is supported on one hand by geopolitical risks, but on the other hand, it is suppressed by oil prices, the dollar, and rate expectations, limiting short-term rebound potential. The Fed’s dovish expectations continue to be the main headwind for gold. Due to high oil prices sparking global inflation worries, traders have increased bets on the Fed possibly raising interest rates by the end of the year. Fed Governor Waller said on Friday that, given rising inflation risks, the Fed should no longer default to rate cuts. Just in January this year, Waller supported rate cuts. During his speech, he stated that with ongoing Middle East conflicts, rising costs of oil and other commodities are increasingly likely to trigger broader, persistent inflation in the economy. He said it’s time for the Fed to stop signaling that the next move might be a rate cut. Waller indicated that maintaining rates in the current 3.5% to 3.75% range for the foreseeable future is likely the right approach. He added, “If inflation doesn’t ease quickly, I can no longer rule out the possibility of future rate hikes.” Waller now agrees that the Fed should clearly state that its next rate adjustment could be either a cut or a hike.
On the economic data front, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index final reading fell from 48.2 to 44.8 in May, with consumer expectations dropping from 48.5 to 44.1. One-year inflation expectations rose from 4.5% to 4.8%, and five-year expectations increased from 3.4% to 3.9%. This indicates consumer concerns about future price pressures are intensifying, providing a basis for the market to reassess the Fed’s policy path.
Additionally, Waller was sworn in as Fed Chair. On May 22, Trump hosted Waller’s swearing-in ceremony at the White House. According to U.S. media, the event was not held at the Fed headquarters as usual but at the White House. The market will closely watch the new Fed Chair’s policy signals, especially amid rising inflation expectations and sustained high oil prices, as his comments on the interest rate path could further influence the dollar, yields, and gold trends.
Next Monday’s Gold Market Outlook:
Technical analysis of gold: Gold maintained a narrow range of consolidation this week, with a doji candlestick on the weekly chart. The short-term trend next week is uncertain, but from a longer-term perspective, the overall trading approach leans toward a primarily bearish setup. Gold was generally weak and oscillating on Thursday, with insufficient bullish momentum, repeatedly facing resistance when attempting to rally, unable to sustain upward moves. The recent tug-of-war between bulls and bears appears weak, with the overall trend favoring technical correction rather than a strong reversal. Short-term, expect continued pressure and pullback. The daily chart closed with a bearish candle on Friday, indicating a weak short-term trend, likely to continue slightly lower on Monday.
On the daily chart, short-term resistance is around 4540, with the early morning rebound high at 4530 serving as a key short-term resistance level.
From the 4-hour chart, next Monday we will mainly look to sell on rebounds around 4530-35 resistance, adding short positions on rallies. Support is first focused around 4480, with resistance at 4550-60, and key resistance at 4580-85. Be alert for a potential second downward probe that doesn’t break support and then reverses higher, aligning with the weekly chart’s likely choppy, weak trend. Without any major unexpected news, a large one-way move (big rise or fall) is unlikely.
Overall, for next Monday, the short-term trading strategy is to mainly sell on rebounds and buy on dips, with a focus on resistance at 4550-4570 and support at 4480-4450. Everyone should stay disciplined, control position sizes and stop-loss levels, and strictly set stop-loss orders—avoid fighting the market.