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$BTC is pumping on the US-Iran peace deal news, but don't get too excited just yet. 🚨
What's actually happening is advanced negotiations for a short Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which is basically a one-page framework to either extend or formally end the ceasefire.
Here's what's on the table:
1. Immediate ceasefire extension (30–60 days)
2. Strait of Hormuz reopened for oil flow
3. Limited rollback of US sanctions
4. Freeze on Iran's nuclear program
The first three are manageable. The nuclear program is where it all falls apart; neither side fully trusts the other on this, and there's no clear verification mechanism in place.
If that issue stays unresolved in the coming days, expect delays or a breakdown in talks, which means the risk-on rally could reverse fast.
But if the deal gets signed and confirmed? Long everything. 🔔