77k BTC, are you going to buy the dip?

ETF outflows of $2.2 billion in two weeks, the Federal Reserve hints at possible rate hikes, U.S. bond yields soar to 5%—but just now, Trump dropped a “Iran Peace Agreement,” and BTC shot back from $74.5K to $77K. After the weekend’s 209M long positions were liquidated, funding rates turned negative, and retail traders are still trembling, while the price has already rebounded 3%.

First, look at the surface: news triggers a violent rebound.

It rose 3.2% in 24 hours, from a low of $74,581 to $77,372, with a trading volume of $29 billion, and a market cap of $1.54 trillion. The candlestick chart shows: two tests near $74K that didn’t break, forming a small double bottom pattern. But look further up—$78,500–$80k is a dense area of April’s highs, three attempts failed, can this time break through?

First thing: Trump gave a big gift, but don’t take it seriously.

Iran Peace Agreement, geopolitical risk easing, risk assets rally, and BTC is taking the opportunity to rebound. But the question is—how long can this “lip service good news” last? Political good news comes fast, and leaves even faster.

Second thing: ETF net outflows of $2.2 billion, institutions are retreating.

In the past two weeks, spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows exceeded $2.26 billion. In a single week, $649 million left. Although U.S. banks increased their BTC ETF holdings in Q1, that was Q1—now it’s late May, and institutions are clearly taking profits.

Third thing: The Fed meeting minutes caused a stir—possible rate hikes.

At the end of April, the meeting kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, but the minutes made it clear: if inflation remains high, rate hikes may be necessary. The bond market is already pricing in a rate hike probability for 2026. U.S. bond yields back to 5%, inflation expectations at 4.8%. BTC’s “inflation hedge” narrative is a joke in the face of high interest rates.

On one side:

- Trump delivers peace agreement, risk sentiment warms

- Rapid rebound of 3.2% from $74.5K, forming a small double bottom

- SEC approves Bitcoin index options, liquidity expectations improve

- RWA assets break through $34 billion, BTC infrastructure is landing

On the other side:

- ETF outflows of $2.26 billion in two weeks, institutions retreat

- Fed minutes hint at possible rate hikes, dovish expectations completely reversed

- U.S. bond yields at 5%, risk-free returns crushing risk assets

- Weekly chart still in a bear flag or large-range oscillation, medium-term trend bearish

Key level: $77,000, just $1,500 away from the “death zone” above.

Resistance above: $78,500 → $80,000 (strong resistance, April high) → $82,000 → $85,000–$89,000

Support below: $76,000 → $74.5k–$74k (recent lows) → $71,400–$70k (strong bottom)

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to $76,000–$76,500 to add light positions, stop-loss at $74,000, first target $79,000–$80,000. When near $80K, don’t be greedy, take half profits first.

Swing traders:

Wait for daily close above $80,000 before considering entering. If it can’t hold, stay flat and watch. If it drops below $74,000 again, don’t chase the knife, target $68K–$70K below.

Long-term believers:

The scarcity logic after Bitcoin halving remains unchanged, but macro factors are the biggest enemy. Dollar-cost averaging is fine, but split your bullets into 10 parts, buy one part every $2,000 drop. Don’t go all in at once.

BTC now feels like mid-2022—

Everyone thought “this time is different,” but $78K was just an obstacle. You think you’re buying the dip, but you’re actually taking on the bag.