U.S. Treasury yields are rewriting the script for the crypto market.

The U.S.-Iran conflict is pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.58%, while the 30-year hits a 2007 high. If it is maintained through the end of the fiscal year, interest expenses will increase by an additional $8 billion; if it continues throughout the 2027 fiscal year, costs will exceed $30 billion. The market is starting to price in the return of “bond vigilantes.”
What does this mean for crypto? As the risk-free rate rises, the valuation anchor for risk assets is being pulled away. The 30-day fund flow momentum for the Bitcoin ETF has plunged from a peak of $13.2 billion to $360M, and CryptoQuant analysts say that structural bullish momentum has disappeared.
More importantly, if a U.S.-Iran agreement is reached, short-term risk appetite may return, but the upward shift in the long-term interest-rate center will not go away. Crypto’s rebound may only be a brief respite in the middle of a macro storm.
Caution: Turning positive on the funding rate does not mean a trend reversal. If the Coinbase premium index remains negative, the rise lacks a foundation due to missing U.S. purchasing power.
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