Analyst Warning: Bitcoin Loses Structural Upward Momentum, Market Enters Risk Aversion Mode

According to a latest report by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr, amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment, Bitcoin’s structural bullish momentum has disappeared, and the market has officially entered a risk aversion mode.

This loss of momentum aligns closely with the timing of the macro environment worsening, meaning that any current rebound in Bitcoin lacks effective support and confirmation. Only if momentum indicators return to positive territory can the market truly stabilize.

In the same week, analysts also used a macro analysis framework built on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and the VIX index to assess how the macroeconomic environment is impacting the Bitcoin market.

The analysis indicates that, under the backdrop of the macro environment, when key indicators such as the U.S. Dollar Index, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and the VIX all show signs that the market environment is deteriorating, it triggers a so-called “coverage mode.”

However, when the macro environment truly enters “coverage mode,” even if Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals show a solid structural performance, it may temporarily lose its supporting role—so investors should prioritize the risks posed by the macroeconomic environment to the entire market.

From capital flow data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows total $362.8 million. Although this is far below the peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024, it is clearly higher than the low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.

And this shift in capital flows may suggest that the market is currently in a mild accumulation phase, providing an important reference for judging market sentiment and institutional investment tendencies.

Meanwhile, as an important indicator for measuring the strength of U.S. spot demand, the Coinbase premium index has been staying in negative territory, indicating weak demand in the spot ETF market. Even if the price of Bitcoin rises, the likelihood of this index quickly returning to positive values is not high.

Overall, the current market structure has begun to diverge: new constraint factors are emerging. Investors also need to analyze from multiple dimensions to break down the sources of price support and the drivers of downside pressure, so they can grasp the direction of the market more accurately.

#Bitcoin Market Trend