#TradFi交易分享挑战 The US debt crisis has collapsed, the yen is set to raise interest rates, and the RMB has broken 7—Full Outlook for the Forex Market Next Week
Important Event Calendar for Next Week
Monday 5/26 U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korea closed ⭐
Tuesday 5/27 U.S. ADP employment, Consumer Confidence Index ⭐⭐
Wednesday 5/28 Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speech, profits of large-scale Chinese enterprises ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Thursday 5/29 U.S. Core PCE, Durable Goods Orders, ECB meeting minutes, Federal Reserve Chair Williams speech ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Friday 5/30 Tokyo CPI, German and French CPI, Bank of England Governor Bailey speech, Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman speech ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Market Outlook for Next Week
Comprehensive Analysis
Monetary Policy Reshaping: The Federal Reserve led by Kevin Waugh will enter a new cycle of "rule-based and cautious" policy. The June FOMC meeting (June 16-17) will be his first time chairing the policy meeting, with markets highly focused on changes in the "dot plot" and wording adjustments in the policy statement.
Three core variables:
1. Sticky inflation: Energy prices + AI investment boom pushing up costs, making short-term inflation difficult to quickly decline
2. Divergence in central bank policies: The Fed maintaining high interest rates, potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and the ECB remaining on hold
3. Geopolitical risks: Ongoing escalation of Middle East tensions, supporting safe-haven demand for the dollar
Risk Alerts
⚠️ High-risk events:
If Federal Reserve officials signal unexpected rate hikes in their speeches, it could trigger sharp market volatility
The June rate hike decision by the Bank of Japan, if implemented as expected, could trigger rapid yen appreciation
Escalation of Middle East conflicts may push energy prices higher and intensify global inflation pressures
Strategy Recommendations
DXY oscillates with a bias to the upside, watch resistance at 99.50-100, mainly look for long positions on dips
EURUSD bears prefer short positions, can attempt light short positions if it rebounds above 1.09
GBPUSD bears focus on support at 1.25, short on rallies
USDJPY high-level oscillation in the 158-160 range, beware of Bank of Japan rate hike expectations
USDCNY fluctuates bidirectionally in the 6.95-7.10 range, monitor domestic economic data
This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!
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