Analyst: BTC will enter a new cycle surpassing stocks, bonds, and gold, ending the longest 142-day bottoming period in history

Former Credit Suisse Global Investment Portfolio Head Mark Connors pointed out that Bitcoin has just ended its longest-ever 142-day period of underperformance against the S&P 500. As inflation remains stubborn, oil prices stay high, and interest rates remain "higher for longer," he expects BTC to re-enter a cycle surpassing stocks, bonds, and gold.
(Background: Analysis of the logic behind this Bitcoin bull market's start, execution, and end: Has the four-year cycle law been broken?)
(Additional context: Metaplanet launches Asia’s largest Bitcoin equity financing: aiming to buy $5.4 billion worth of BTC, holding 1% of the supply)

Table of Contents

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• Inflation, oil prices, interest rates—triple pressures eroding bonds’ defensive role
• Gold leads, Bitcoin follows: Replaying the 2020 script?
• AI and blockchain: Unlocking productivity engines to break inflation
• "Take the hits first, then break out": BTC’s cyclical rhythm

Bitcoin’s 142-day relative weakness against the S&P 500 is a record never seen since BTC’s inception. Risk Dimensions Chief Investment Officer and former Credit Suisse Global Portfolio Head Mark Connors recently told the media:

"I believe Bitcoin’s bottoming out relative to the market has ended. It’s transitioning from a consolidation phase into a phase of outperformance."

Inflation, oil prices, interest rates—triple pressures eroding bonds’ defensive role

Connors’ core argument revolves around a stark reality: the traditional role of “defensive assets” is loosening. In April, US CPI hit 3.8%, PPI reached 6%, and expectations for rate cuts continued to fade. The Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” interest rate path is gradually becoming the market’s baseline scenario.

In this environment, bonds face dual pressures: their coupon rates can’t keep up with inflation, and capital gains are constrained by rate hike expectations. Connors straightforwardly states: “As the market adapts to a higher and longer interest rate environment, bonds’ function as a defensive asset is increasingly under pressure.”

The structural high in oil prices is another key factor. Connors believes geopolitical tensions and persistently high energy prices are both drivers of inflation and forces pushing capital to seek tools that can offset inflation.

Gold leads, Bitcoin follows: Replaying the 2020 script?

Connors highlights a historical analogy. In early 2020, during the pandemic’s onset, gold surged first, but Bitcoin then launched a strong rebound, eventually overtaking gold. He sees a high similarity in the market structure for 2026.

“Gold has run its course,” Connors says, “Bitcoin is now beginning its recovery.”

AI and blockchain: Unlocking productivity engines to break inflation

Connors’ analysis isn’t limited to macroeconomics. He further points out that the integration of AI and blockchain technology is becoming a key weapon for companies fighting inflationary pressures.

“The only way to break through inflation is through technology,” he says. As companies seek decentralized systems to support machine-driven transactions and automation processes, the connection between AI and blockchain will deepen.

This perspective extends Bitcoin’s narrative from merely “digital gold” to “productivity infrastructure”: in an environment of high inflation and high interest rates, assets that resonate with technological upgrade cycles are theoretically more resilient.

"Take the hits first, then break out": BTC’s cyclical rhythm

Connors doesn’t shy away from Bitcoin’s short-term volatility. His description is quite straightforward: “Bitcoin, as always, is the first to take the hits, but also the first to break out.”

He expects that, as the market consolidates amid “persistent bad news and stubbornly high oil prices,” Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to stocks and fixed income will continue.

Currently, BTC is trading around $76,800. Whether the 142-day relative weakness truly ends remains to be seen with further data.