Could Bitcoin’s “deep V” surge after the US-Iran ceasefire news break the market—will it then fall below $60,000?

Could Bitcoin’s “deep V” surge after the US-Iran ceasefire news break the market—will it then fall below $60,000?

Bitcoin dipped as low as $74,200 yesterday, then quickly surged to $77,400. The latest price today is $76,700. This V-shaped reversal is closely related to the potential US-Iran ceasefire and the asset-unfreezing agreement. The question the market is most focused on is: will it fall below $60,000 next? This article lays out the core logic on both the bulls’ and bears’ sides.

## 1. Reasons for the decline: a “pit” dug by war panic
On May 23, Bitcoin slid all the way down to $74,200. The trigger came from the Middle East: US media reported that the US military was preparing for possible action against Iran, and the White House said, “All military options are under consideration.” Market panic triggered an exodus from risk, with liquidations of $945 million in a single day and the total market value shrinking by 3%. At this point, Bitcoin was not acting as “digital gold,” but as a risk asset.

## 2. Reasons for the rebound: peace signals ignite a counterattack narrative
Later that day, the situation reversed: the US and Iran made an indirect negotiation breakthrough with the mediation of Pakistan. Trump announced prominently that “the agreement is basically done, and the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.” Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the memorandum of understanding has entered the final stage of being finalized. Bitcoin quickly surged from $74,200 to $77,400, delivering a V-shaped reversal.

## 3. The fundamental uncertainties still remain
Although the market is excited, the agreement is far from a done deal. Iran “denied” that Trump’s statements were incomplete. Iran emphasized it will continue to “manage” the strait and that it is not a completely free passage. The parliamentary speaker publicly criticized the US as “having no credibility.” Polymarket data shows that the probability of reaching a permanent peace agreement is only 12% before June, 30% before July, 40% before August, and it will not exceed 70% within the year. Current market pricing may be overestimating the probability of peace.

## 4. Outlook: will it fall below $60,000?
**Bearish view**
- Technicals: it has broken below both the 365-day and the 200-day moving average lines.
- Analyst Van der Pop: after breaking below the key support at $75–76K, it may fall toward $60,000.
- Polymarket forecast: 51% probability of falling to $55K; 31% probability of falling to $45K.
- With the new Fed Chair Wosh taking office, rate-hike expectations have heated up, increasing macro pressure: the S&P could drop 15%, and US Treasury yields would need to rise to 5.8%.

**Bullish view**
- Strategy founder Saylor: there is solid support around $60,000, and miner supply has already been absorbed by the market.
- On-chain data: giant whales have continued to accumulate in May. Over two months, their holdings grew by 50% to $64 billion. Long-term holders account for 71%. The actual difficulty of falling below $60K is high.
- Analyst Hylan: since the February low, there has been about 90 days of rebound. “In a bear market, there has never been a sustained rebound of 89 days.” If the US-Iran agreement is ultimately finalized, it could push Bitcoin above $85,000.

## 5. Core comparison of bulls vs. bears
- Long-term holders account for 71%.
- Probability of falling to $60K: 51%.
- Institutional ETF holdings exceed $100 billion, and long-term capital has not withdrawn.
- Low probability of a US-Iran agreement being reached (only 12% before June).
- If an agreement is reached, it will greatly boost risk appetite.
- Miner supply has been fully absorbed, so supply-side pressure is low.

## 6. Current market judgment
The forces of bulls and bears are extremely close. Bitcoin will most likely continue to experience intense volatility in the $60,000–$83,000 range. US equities and macro fundamentals are still the key variables.

⚠️ Risk warning: This content is only a market information roundup and logical analysis, and does not constitute any investment advice.

Do you think Bitcoin will break below $60,000 this time? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments.#Gate广场披萨节