#TradFi交易分享挑战 5.24 Gold Technical Analysis and Next Monday's Market Outlook
What recent news factors are influencing gold and crude oil trends? How should we assess the bullish or bearish prospects for gold in the near future?
Saturday (May 23), as of the week ending May 19, speculative positions showed clear divergence. Speculators in the energy sector significantly increased net long positions in crude oil, while in precious metals, gold and silver net longs shrank simultaneously, and copper saw a slight increase. In the forex market, the euro maintained a net long position, while the yen, pound, and Swiss franc continued to hold net short positions. U.S. Treasury holdings showed a term structure divergence, with short-term T-bills reducing net short positions, and medium- to long-term holdings increasing net shorts. Most agricultural commodities saw speculators reduce long exposure or cut short positions, indicating a cautious adjustment overall. Data shows market participants are rebalancing positions across different asset classes, reflecting divergent macroeconomic expectations. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, gold performed weakly this week. As the market re-commits to expectations of future Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and oil prices fueling inflation concerns, gold prices remained under pressure, briefly falling to a three-week low. Meanwhile, although U.S.-Iran negotiations released some positive signals, key disagreements remain, keeping the market highly alert to global inflation and interest rate outlooks.
Gold is supported on one hand by geopolitical risks, but on the other hand, it is suppressed by oil prices, the dollar, and interest rate expectations, limiting short-term rebound potential. The Fed’s dovish expectations continue to be the main headwind for gold. Due to high oil prices triggering global inflation worries, traders have increased bets on the Fed raising interest rates by the end of the year. Fed Governor Waller said on Friday that, given rising inflation risks, the Fed should no longer default to rate cuts. Just in January this year, Waller had supported rate cuts. During his speech, Waller stated that with the ongoing Middle East conflict, rising costs of oil and other commodities are increasingly likely to trigger broader, sustained inflation in the economy. He said, therefore, it’s time for the Fed to stop signaling that the next move might be a rate cut. Waller indicated that maintaining rates in the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the foreseeable future is likely the right approach. He added, “If inflation cannot be subdued quickly, I cannot rule out future rate hikes.” Waller now agrees that the Fed should clearly state that its next rate adjustment could be either a cut or a hike. Regarding economic data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index final reading fell from 48.2 to 44.8 in May, with consumer expectations dropping from 48.5 to 44.1. One-year inflation expectations rose from 4.5% to 4.8%, and five-year expectations increased from 3.4% to 3.9%. This indicates consumer concerns about future price pressures are intensifying, providing a basis for the market to reassess the Fed’s policy path. Additionally, Waller was sworn in as Fed Chair. On May 22, Trump hosted Waller’s swearing-in ceremony at the White House. According to U.S. media, the ceremony was not held at the Fed headquarters as usual but at the White House. The market will closely watch the new Fed Chair’s policy signals, especially amid rising inflation expectations and sustained high oil prices, as his comments on the interest rate path could further influence the dollar, yields, and gold trends.
Next Monday’s Gold Market Outlook:
Technical analysis of gold: This week, gold maintained a narrow range sideways, with a doji on the weekly chart, indicating short-term uncertainty. From a longer-term perspective, the overall trading approach leans toward a bearish setup. Yesterday, gold remained weak and oscillated, with ongoing lack of bullish momentum. Prices repeatedly faced resistance when attempting to rally, unable to sustain upward moves. Recent market sentiment shows a clear bias toward technical correction, with no strong reversal signals, so the short-term trend remains under pressure and downward. The daily chart closed with a bearish candle on Friday, indicating a weak short-term outlook, likely to continue a slight decline on Monday. Short-term resistance is around 4540, with the early morning rebound high at 4530 serving as a key short-term resistance level.
From the 4-hour chart, next Monday we will mainly look to short on rebounds around 4530-35 resistance, adding to short positions on rallies. Support is focused on 4480 in the short term, with resistance at 4550-60, and key resistance at 4580-85. Be alert for a possible reversal if the price tests support without breaking it, especially as the weekly close suggests a likely sideways to weak correction. Without any major unexpected news, a large one-way move (big rise or fall) is unlikely.
Overall, for next Monday, the short-term trading strategy for gold should primarily be to sell on rebounds and buy on dips, with a focus on resistance at 4550-4570 and support at 4480-4450. Everyone must stay disciplined, control position sizes and stop-losses, and avoid fighting the market.
What recent news factors are influencing gold and crude oil trends? How should we assess the bullish or bearish prospects for gold in the near future?
Saturday (May 23), as of the week ending May 19, speculative positions showed clear divergence. Speculators in the energy sector significantly increased net long positions in crude oil, while in precious metals, gold and silver net longs shrank simultaneously, and copper saw a slight increase. In the forex market, the euro maintained a net long position, while the yen, pound, and Swiss franc continued to hold net short positions. U.S. Treasury holdings showed a term structure divergence, with short-term T-bills reducing net short positions, and medium- to long-term holdings increasing net shorts. Most agricultural commodities saw speculators reduce long exposure or cut short positions, indicating a cautious adjustment overall. Data shows market participants are rebalancing positions across different asset classes, reflecting divergent macroeconomic expectations. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, gold performed weakly this week. As the market re-commits to expectations of future Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and oil prices fueling inflation concerns, gold prices remained under pressure, briefly falling to a three-week low. Meanwhile, although U.S.-Iran negotiations released some positive signals, key disagreements remain, keeping the market highly alert to global inflation and interest rate outlooks.
Gold is supported on one hand by geopolitical risks, but on the other hand, it is suppressed by oil prices, the dollar, and interest rate expectations, limiting short-term rebound potential. The Fed’s dovish expectations continue to be the main headwind for gold. Due to high oil prices triggering global inflation worries, traders have increased bets on the Fed raising interest rates by the end of the year. Fed Governor Waller said on Friday that, given rising inflation risks, the Fed should no longer default to rate cuts. Just in January this year, Waller had supported rate cuts. During his speech, Waller stated that with the ongoing Middle East conflict, rising costs of oil and other commodities are increasingly likely to trigger broader, sustained inflation in the economy. He said, therefore, it’s time for the Fed to stop signaling that the next move might be a rate cut. Waller indicated that maintaining rates in the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the foreseeable future is likely the right approach. He added, “If inflation cannot be subdued quickly, I cannot rule out future rate hikes.” Waller now agrees that the Fed should clearly state that its next rate adjustment could be either a cut or a hike. Regarding economic data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index final reading fell from 48.2 to 44.8 in May, with consumer expectations dropping from 48.5 to 44.1. One-year inflation expectations rose from 4.5% to 4.8%, and five-year expectations increased from 3.4% to 3.9%. This indicates consumer concerns about future price pressures are intensifying, providing a basis for the market to reassess the Fed’s policy path. Additionally, Waller was sworn in as Fed Chair. On May 22, Trump hosted Waller’s swearing-in ceremony at the White House. According to U.S. media, the ceremony was not held at the Fed headquarters as usual but at the White House. The market will closely watch the new Fed Chair’s policy signals, especially amid rising inflation expectations and sustained high oil prices, as his comments on the interest rate path could further influence the dollar, yields, and gold trends.
Next Monday’s Gold Market Outlook:
Technical analysis of gold: This week, gold maintained a narrow range sideways, with a doji on the weekly chart, indicating short-term uncertainty. From a longer-term perspective, the overall trading approach leans toward a bearish setup. Yesterday, gold remained weak and oscillated, with ongoing lack of bullish momentum. Prices repeatedly faced resistance when attempting to rally, unable to sustain upward moves. Recent market sentiment shows a clear bias toward technical correction, with no strong reversal signals, so the short-term trend remains under pressure and downward. The daily chart closed with a bearish candle on Friday, indicating a weak short-term outlook, likely to continue a slight decline on Monday. Short-term resistance is around 4540, with the early morning rebound high at 4530 serving as a key short-term resistance level.
From the 4-hour chart, next Monday we will mainly look to short on rebounds around 4530-35 resistance, adding to short positions on rallies. Support is focused on 4480 in the short term, with resistance at 4550-60, and key resistance at 4580-85. Be alert for a possible reversal if the price tests support without breaking it, especially as the weekly close suggests a likely sideways to weak correction. Without any major unexpected news, a large one-way move (big rise or fall) is unlikely.
Overall, for next Monday, the short-term trading strategy for gold should primarily be to sell on rebounds and buy on dips, with a focus on resistance at 4550-4570 and support at 4480-4450. Everyone must stay disciplined, control position sizes and stop-losses, and avoid fighting the market.
