Today I checked the stablecoin supply and TVL again like feeding a puppy, and when it goes up I can't help but wag my tail... but I also remind myself not to get too carried away. Recently, people keep linking "more stablecoins + ETF inflows = about to rise" into a causal chain, but honestly, correlation can be quite deceptive: off-chain money might just be parked elsewhere or used for hedging, not necessarily flowing directly into risk assets. Plus, with macro variables like interest rate cut expectations and the US dollar index, sometimes they move in sync with risk assets, making me feel more and more that market sentiment is running faster than logic. What I fear most isn't slowness, but chaos — a little delay can be waited out, but chaos easily causes us to lose control of risk management and rhythm. Anyway, I prefer simple strategies; I’ll observe complex ones first and not chase after explaining the world.