5.24

Current price: around 76,800

Market core logic

1. The current rally is mainly driven by news (Trump's ceasefire comments), lacking genuine capital inflow, so the sustainability of the rebound is doubtful. The market is likely to revert to its original trend.
2. 4-hour timeframe: in a strong rebound channel, with key resistance at 77,500–78,000, trading volume is low, and bullish momentum is insufficient.
3. Daily long-term cycle: the bear market structure remains unchanged — bullish confirmation conditions: daily close above 90,400 + sustained increasing volume (price levels adjusted dynamically with market conditions)
- Current market characterization: only a bear market rebound, avoid chasing longs, prefer short positions on rallies.

Today's execution strategy

1. Grid trading robot range (recommended)

BTC trading range: 75,300 — 78,000

- Strategy logic: within the range, bulls and bears repeatedly tug, no need to wait for extreme highs or lows, multiple take-profit exits can be completed within the range.

2. Gradually establish short positions at current prices

- Entry points: gradually build short positions around 77,000
- Core risk control idea: - If the price touches or briefly breaks above 78,000, do not panic sell; instead, add to short positions as the trend likely pulls back after a rise.
- Only consider trend reversal and exit with stop-loss if the price stabilizes above 78,000 accompanied by massive capital inflow.

Overall approach: take it step by step, adjust plans according to market changes, avoid fighting the bear market rebound, focus on range-bound sideways with a bias toward short positions.