Trump says US-Iran "close to agreement," Polymarket bets on a nuclear deal happening this year soar to 81%

Trump claimed on the 24th that the US-Iran peace agreement "has been roughly negotiated." Polymarket bettors rushed in, with the odds of reaching a nuclear deal before 2027 soaring to 81% in a single day.
(Background recap: The White House reports gunfire again! Secret Service shot and killed the gunman, with one civilian injured and rushed to the hospital.)
(Additional background: Trump stated that "a temporary delay" in deploying military forces to Iran is acceptable! Iran has proposed a Hormuz Strait exchange condition.)

Trump posted this morning: The peace agreement between the US and Iran "has been largely negotiated, with final details and terms currently under discussion, and will be announced soon."

He revealed on Truth Social that he just completed a "very smooth" video call with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, focusing on Iran and the peace memorandum.

Meanwhile, Trump pointed out that the Hormuz Strait will also reopen. This shipping lane, which accounts for about 20% of global oil exports, could see a significant reduction in concerns over energy supply chains in the Middle East once the blockade is lifted.

Polymarket bettors rush to bet on peace

After Trump's announcement, funds on the prediction market Polymarket moved quickly. The odds of reaching an official nuclear agreement before January 1, 2027, surged over 24 hours, currently at 81%.

At the same time, the odds of "the US invading Iran before 2027" dropped by 8 percentage points to 18%, with a 24-hour trading volume of $741,058, indicating more funds are betting on "no war."

Prediction market data from Polymarket
— Yes 18% (-8%)