Recently, I saw a bunch of people directly translate "the supply of stablecoins has increased" and "ETF is bringing in money" as "the bull is coming," basically using correlation as causation, which sounds pretty convenient. The small on-chain increases are sometimes just changing masks, arbitrage, or preparing market-making reserves; it doesn't necessarily mean real cash is flowing in from off-chain. ETFs are more like a faucet, with the switch in someone else's hands; the inflow might first go to hedging or rebalancing, not necessarily immediately pushing spot prices.

I treat complexity as an enemy: don't rush to find the only reason, first observe who is buying, and whether they immediately sell after buying.

By the way, modularization and DeFi layer narratives are heating up again. Developers look like "the future has arrived," while users look like "so what can I do"... Anyway, the more unified the sentiment, the more I want to hold back.