Recently, some people have been trying to connect the dots between changes in stablecoin supply, ETF inflows and outflows, and off-chain capital flows, claiming they are related.

In other words, they look at the correlations as if they are causal, but that doesn't mean causation is established.
An increase in stablecoins might just mean they are parked elsewhere; a hot ETF might simply indicate new investors entering; don’t rush to interpret on-chain activity as “funds about to take off.”
Lately, RWA and U.S. Treasury yields have been compared to on-chain yield products.
I also look at these, but mostly as a thermometer of sentiment: people are seeking certainty, not suddenly falling in love with DeFi.
Anyway, what I fear most isn’t losses, but loss of control—like an unexpected large transfer or a mysterious plunge in interest rates—that’s what really keeps me awake.
Observe first, act less.