Jingyi breaks down the situation: The yellow-haired official announces that the peace agreement between the US and Iran is basically finalized, and the Strait of Hormuz will also be opened.

1. Core event: The yellow-haired person states that they have spoken with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries; the US-Iran peace agreement is nearly complete, only awaiting final confirmation, and will be officially announced soon.

2. Key signal: It is specifically mentioned that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened—this strait is the world's most important oil transportation route, with about 30% of global oil trade passing through it. Previously, due to US-Iran conflicts, markets have been worried about it being blocked, which could trigger a surge in oil prices.

3. Market implications: The greatest risk point of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflict is being lifted, and market panic over "war escalation → oil price spike → runaway inflation" will significantly subside.

4. Short-term upward momentum, but not an absolute positive
✅ Short-term bullish logic (upward momentum)

1. Risk appetite returns, funds flow back into risk assets
After the easing of Middle Eastern conflicts, risk aversion in the market will decline, and funds will flow out of safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar, re-entering stocks and cryptocurrencies. Historically, every ceasefire or de-escalation in the Middle East has led to a rebound in Bitcoin, for example, after the ceasefire news in April this year, Bitcoin jumped from $72k to above $78k.

2. Oil prices fall, easing inflation pressure, and expectations of rate cuts rise
The opening of the Strait of Hormuz will directly suppress oil prices (historically, every announcement of opening has caused oil prices to plummet over 10%), and falling oil prices will ease global inflation pressures. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts will rise again. Expectations of rate cuts are one of Bitcoin’s core positives and will attract institutional funds.

3. Market pricing of “black swan” risks disappears, volatility decreases
Previously, the market had priced in “risk premiums” for Middle Eastern conflicts. Once the agreement is implemented, this premium will vanish, reducing Bitcoin’s volatility, and institutional funds will be more willing to enter.

⚠️ Potential negative risks (uncertainty of upward movement)
1. Variables before the “official announcement” of the agreement
The yellow-haired person says “basically reached,” but before final confirmation, any reversal by Iran or Israel could ruin the agreement, causing the market to shift from “good news to bad.”

2. Has the positive news already been digested by the market?
In recent weeks, the market has been speculating on the “US-Iran peace talks,” and Bitcoin has already rebounded significantly from lows. If the official announcement of the agreement doesn’t differ much from market expectations, there’s a high chance of a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario, leading to a correction.

3. The core logic of Bitcoin still revolves around ETF and halving cycles
Geopolitical factors are just short-term catalysts. The long-term trend of Bitcoin depends on institutional ETF fund inflows, supply and demand changes after the halving, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. The agreement is just adding fuel to the fire, not the fundamental driver.

The sustainability of the rally depends on two points: whether the agreement can truly be implemented smoothly, and whether market expectations for rate cuts will continue to rise. If subsequent developments cause uncertainties or the Fed signals “no rate cuts,” this rebound could easily fizzle out.

Don’t go all-in on one piece of news; geopolitical uncertainties are high. Jingyi believes he’s just a mouthpiece #TradFi交易分享挑战 .