Polymarket's single-day jump of 25% is pretty intense. Does someone know inside information, or is it just pure emotional betting?

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MeNews
Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before April 22, 2026?
The probability of "Yes" options increases by 25.0 percentage points in a single day.
According to ME News on April 18 (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the event of "Can the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before April 22, 2026?", the probability of the "Yes" option increasing from 14.5% to 39.5%, a single-day rise of 25.0 percentage points.
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