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The predicted probability of the United States and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement has significantly increased

MeNews
According to ME News on May 24 (UTC+8), prediction market data shows that in the forecast whether "the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement before June 7, 2026," the probability of the "Yes" option has increased from 20.5% to 51.0%, a daily rise of 30.5 percentage points.
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RugProofMaybe
· 1h ago
Jumped from 20% to 51%, short sellers must have been liquidated.
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PixelUniverseCat
· 19h ago
51% is still too optimistic; things in the Middle East are not that simple.
View OriginalReply0
Stop-LossLineForTheEveningGlow
· 19h ago
This fluctuation is a bit outrageous, doubling in a day.
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DexterRamen
· 19h ago
It feels like someone has obtained insider information.
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-44dde53b
· 19h ago
Just checked out Polymarket, liquidity is actually average, a big order can move this much.
View OriginalReply0
EchoOfL2
· 19h ago
June 7, 2026, this deadline is set quite specifically
View OriginalReply0

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