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Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before April 22, 2026?
The probability of "Yes" options increases by 25.0 percentage points in a single day.

MeNews
According to ME News on April 18th (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the event of "Can the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before April 22, 2026?", the trading probability of the "Yes" option increased from 14.5% to 39.5%, a single-day rise of 25.0 percentage points.
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FrenBurner
· 18h ago
This probability curve looks like a shitcoin, exciting.
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-665eb149
· 05-23 19:48
Waiting for a callback, now entering. Yes, the risk-reward ratio is not favorable.
View OriginalReply0
MechanicalHummingbirdGlass
· 05-23 19:37
That jump is a bit sharp, 25 points a day.
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-14d03834
· 05-23 19:26
39.5% still feels inflated; the waters in the Middle East are very deep.
View OriginalReply0
MemeSourdough
· 05-23 19:23
Is the data source for ME News reliable? I want to confirm.
View OriginalReply0
Paper-SculptedOctopusPool
· 05-23 19:21
Polymarket is still too emotional; let's wait until there is real news at the negotiation table.
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-88d5d071
· 05-23 19:19
From 14.5% to 39.5%, is the market really understanding something, or is it just pure FOMO?
View OriginalReply0
GlassCityAfterTheRain
· 05-23 19:19
April 22, 2026, this deadline is set quite far away; there are too many variables in between.
View OriginalReply0

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