Analyst Murphy noted that at the bear market bottoms in February 2019 and January 2022, BTC had unrealized losses of approximately 10.6 million units. If this pattern holds, the next bottom may be around $60,000. When a specific unrealized-loss threshold is reached, market supply may run dry, making it difficult for the stock price to fall further. As of February 5, 2026, when BTC drops to $60,000, the unrealized-loss amount in circulation is about 9.93 million units; if it returns to $60,000, the unrealized-loss amount in the current coin distribution would reach 10.6 million units, or coincide with previous bottoms.

MarsBitNews

2026-05-23 13:16:39

Abstract generation in progress

Mars Finance reports that on May 23, analyst Murphy said that at the two bear-market bottoms in February 2019 and January 2022, the number of BTC losses was 10.6 million coins each time. If this pattern holds for the current bear market, the corresponding bottom price would be around $60,000. Whenever the circulating BTC loss amount reaches a certain critical threshold, the supply side may become depleted, making it difficult for prices to continue falling. When BTC drops to $60,000 on February 5, 2026, the loss amount has already approached 9.93 million coins. If it returns to 6 hundred thousand coins again, the loss amount in the current BTC coin structure will reach 10.6 million coins, or it would coincide with the previous bear-market bottom.

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GateUser-a65ee044

· 13h ago

The supply exhaustion theory sounds mysterious, but on-chain data is indeed more honest than candlestick charts.

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BlueMultisig

· 15h ago

10.6 million un realized loss as this anchor value, verified twice in history, will the third time fail?

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GateUser-8947c5ff

· 15h ago

If this pattern is accurate, someone should be secretly buying the dip on February 5, 2026.

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MinersUnderTheNeonBridge

· 15h ago

On-chain data doesn't lie, but the people interpreting the data might.

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GateUser-eb706989

· 15h ago

Not realizing losses until the threshold is reached, so does the current 9.93 million tokens still fall short?

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VintageKeychain

· 15h ago

When BTC drops to $60k, the loss in the chip structure changes; this perspective is indeed detailed, I hadn't noticed it before.

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RefrigeratorMagnetContract

· 15h ago

If the bottom really was at 60k, those calling for a bear market now are about to turn bullish again and chase the highs.

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ReflectiveKey

· 15h ago

The number 10.6 million tokens is like a curse; both times during the bear market bottom, it was hit.

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GateUser-739338fe

· 15h ago

I understand analysts drawing lines, but whether the market will follow the script is another matter entirely.

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GateUser-e623ef4b

· 15h ago

Murphy's data is quite interesting; if 60k dollars really becomes the baseline, then those cutting losses now will be crying their eyes out.

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Analysis: In the previous two bear markets, the total BTC losses at the bottom were 10.6 million coins, corresponding to a price of $60k in this round.

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