The essence of the regulatory power struggle is that each state doesn't want to lose gambling tax revenue, the CFTC wants to expand authority, and platforms are frantically expanding in the middle — a typical American-style game.

The federal government and multiple states in the United States are in dispute over regulatory authority over prediction markets, with 17 states challenging; some states believe that sports event contracts should be regulated by the states as gambling, while the CFTC argues that event contracts are derivatives and should be federally regulated. Congress has intervened, with James Comer demanding that Kalshi and Polymarket submit insider trading prevention documents. Despite uncertainties, Kalshi is valued at approximately $22 billion, and Polymarket at around $15 billion, with related executives still planning to continue investing. Regulatory disputes are expected to continue evolving over the next few years.