Over the past 24 hours, the token has fallen by 2%, and over the last month — more than 12%.

Although the chart structure still leans toward bearish sentiment, some data indicate that the breakout is not yet complete. The next few sessions will determine whether DOGE will plunge into a deeper decline or stabilize near current levels.

Pressure on Dogecoin's price is increasing

Dogecoin is trading near the lower boundary of a declining price structure with a forming bearish flag. This maintains the risk of further decline, especially if support around $0.124–$0.120 fails. Nevertheless, what stands out is how speculative supply has behaved as the price has fallen.

Formation of a bearish flag
The holder group from 1 week to 1 month is usually the most aggressive. Swing traders have sharply reduced their activity, according to HODL Waves. This metric classifies holders by time.

On November 29, this group controlled about 7.73% of Dogecoin's supply. As of December 23, the share decreased to approximately 2.76%. A sharp reduction in speculative positioning over a short period.

Speculative holders are dumping DOGE
This is important because such holders tend to amplify declines during panic selling. Their exit often reduces forced selling pressure near support levels.

What long-term holders are doing

While speculative supply is decreasing, long-term holders are showing early signs of accumulation. The group of holders from 1 to 2 years has increased its share of Dogecoin's supply from 21.84% to 22.34%. The increase is small, but the signal is significant.

This group usually buys coins only when they believe the risk of decline is beginning to diminish.

Long-term holders are buying
Dogecoin activity on the network, measured by the spent coins metric, confirms this view. Activity related to spent coins has sharply declined. The age range metric of spent coins decreased from about 251.97 million DOGE to approximately 94.34 million DOGE. This means coin movement has decreased by more than 60%.

Coin activity is declining
The decrease in coin activity may indicate that fewer holders are rushing to move or sell tokens. Historically, such drops in activity have preceded short-term relief rallies in Dogecoin. Earlier in December, a similar slowdown preceded a rally from around $0.132 to $0.151, nearly 15% in three days.

This situation does not guarantee a rally but shows that selling aggressiveness is more likely waning than accelerating.

Key levels for Dogecoin

The technical picture currently depends on a narrow price range. The $0.120 level remains the most important short-term support. A decisive daily close below it would put Dogecoin at risk of a deeper decline toward the $0.112 zone and possibly lower if momentum increases.

On the other hand, the recovery likelihood depends on overcoming the nearest resistance. Moving above $0.133 would signal a weakening of selling pressure. Returning to the $0.138 level would confirm that buyers are regaining control and that the recent decline was corrective rather than the start of a larger breakout.

Dogecoin price analysis
In simple terms, Dogecoin is at a crossroads. The price structure still carries risk, but some metrics show that speculative supply is leaving. Long-term holders are gradually exiting, and overall coin activity is decreasing. If support holds, these factors will help stabilize the price. If not, a breakout remains possible.