I'm not really trusting the "smart money" approach when looking at projects now; on-chain large transfers and hot/cold wallets on exchanges get interpreted by so many people as if it's a script... Honestly, that's more like an emotional indicator.

On the other hand, when the treasury spends money and it doesn't match the milestones, that's the real problem: the budget looks great on paper, but actual expenses are mostly consulting fees/market collaborations, and the progress on code and audits hasn't kept up, which makes me a bit uneasy.
I treat the treasury expenditure as a "backup": teams that are genuinely serious about their work have redundant spending paths—R&D, audits, infrastructure—all share the costs, so they can cover issues; those that only push one or two promotional points, if they ever hit a snag, will completely go offline.
Anyway, I’d rather see them take it slow and make their deliverables clear and ensure the money is accounted for.