Just got another red dot popping up on my phone: a certain public blockchain is set to upgrade and undergo maintenance, and the group immediately started guessing, “Will there be a big migration”… As I was watching, I couldn’t help feeling a bit amused and a bit panicked at the same time. I’ve recently been fiddling with address profiling—the whole package of labels, clustering, and fund flow—basically, putting “human setups” on wallets. But lately I’ve been increasingly convinced that I can only trust it about 60–70%. The same person can have a dozen-plus addresses; if an exchange/multisig gets mixed in, that “smart money” line on the chart starts to look like a script.

But my emotions are honestly more truthful—once there’s a large on-chain outflow, the storyline starts to resonate, and everyone automatically completes the idea that, “They know insider information.” Right now, I’d rather treat profiling like a thermometer than a navigation tool. I’ll wait until after the maintenance to see where the real flow goes—anyway, I’m not in a hurry to place bets on behalf of others.