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Recently, I looked into a very old chart that still attracts a lot of interest — it’s called "Periods When to Make Money," dating back to the 19th century. It’s believed to be created by Samuel Benner, a farmer from Ohio, or George Titch — they tried to identify recurring patterns in the economy to help investors know when to buy and when to sell.
This chart divides the years into three main categories. First are the panic years — periods in history when financial crises occurred, expected to repeat, with prices dropping sharply. Second are the prosperity years, when prices are high and considered good times to sell. Third are the hard years, when prices are low and ideal for buying and holding.
The story behind this chart is quite interesting. Samuel Benner published this idea in his book "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" in 1875, later refined and popularized by George Titch. The clear goal was to help traders predict cycles of prosperity and recession to make strategic decisions.
But is it accurate? That’s the big question. This chart is based on the theory that economic cycles repeat regularly. However, reality is much more complex. Cycles are never perfectly regular, and countless economic, political, and global factors can influence outcomes in unpredictable ways. Most financial analysts admit that trying to pinpoint the exact market timing is extremely difficult, almost impossible.
In fact, the idea of these "periods when to make money" is very appealing, but we need to be cautious. Don’t treat it as an exact prediction of the future. Instead, investors should focus on long-term strategies and diversification, rather than trying to catch the peaks and bottoms based on such charts. Markets always have surprises, and the best approach is to have a clear plan rather than gamble on predicted cycles.