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Just came across this fascinating old market theory from Samuel Benner back in 1875 – the guy was basically trying to crack the code on economic cycles, and honestly, some of his observations still hold up today. The concept is pretty straightforward: there are specific periods when to make money, and understanding them could save you from making costly mistakes.
So here's how Benner divided it up. First, there are the panic years – roughly every 18 to 20 years, markets go through serious turmoil. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and if the pattern holds, 2035 and 2053. These are the years when you want to be extra careful, not panic selling everything you own. It's counterintuitive, but these crashes are part of the cycle.
Then you've got the boom years – the golden periods. Markets recover, prices shoot up, and this is when you actually want to be selling and taking profits. Years like 1928, 1935, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020. Notice we're in 2026 now? According to this model, 2026 and 2034 are projected boom periods – interesting timing.
The third type is recession years, the hard times. Prices are beaten down, the economy is sluggish, but that's exactly when you should be buying – stocks, land, commodities, whatever. The strategy is simple: accumulate during these lows, then wait for the boom to sell high. Years like 1924, 1931, 1942, 1958, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023. We just came out of a rough 2023, remember?
The basic playbook: buy low during recessions, hold tight, sell high during booms, and don't get shaken out during panics. It's almost like a period when to make money is less about timing the exact day and more about understanding which phase of the cycle you're in.
Now, here's the thing – this isn't some guaranteed law of nature. Markets are way more complex now: geopolitics, wars, tech disruption, policy shifts, all that stuff throws curveballs. But as a long-term framework for thinking about market cycles? It's worth keeping in your mental toolkit. Even if it's just roughly accurate, it beats making emotional decisions based on fear or greed.