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U.S. CPI inflation is expected to surpass +5.0% as early as this year.
Over the past 6 months, the CPI inflation month-over-month average has been +0.4%, with readings of +0.9% and +0.6% in March and April, respectively.
If this trend continues, year-over-year inflation could surge to +5.2 by the midterm elections in November.
This would be the highest level since February 2023 and more than double the data from February 2026.
Even if monthly inflation slows to +0.3%, the year-over-year inflation rate would still rise to +4.4%, the highest since April 2023.
Inflation is making a full comeback.