Been seeing a lot of chatter lately about when is the next crypto bull run actually going to kick off, and honestly the macro picture just got more interesting.

So the ISM Manufacturing PMI just hit 52.7 - highest we've seen since 2022. More importantly, it's stayed above 50 for three straight months now. That's expansion after nearly three years of contraction. Pretty wild when you think about it - longest stretch of manufacturing weakness in over a century.

Here's where it gets relevant for crypto though. Every time we've seen this kind of economic expansion, it's historically aligned with major crypto rallies. Look back at 2013, 2017, 2021 - those were all periods when manufacturing activity picked up and liquidity conditions improved. Risk assets across the board benefited. Even through the recent contraction, Bitcoin managed to cross $100k, which tells you there's still underlying demand.

Raoul Pal's been making an interesting point about this. He reckons crypto basically follows the business cycle, and ISM is the key indicator to watch. The traditional halving cycle might not be the full story this time around. His take is we're looking at a five-year cycle instead, with ISM potentially peaking around 2026.

There are two main ways people are thinking about the timing of the next bull run. One camp sticks with the halving narrative - April 2024 halving followed by consolidation, then new highs in 2025, with the real peak potentially stretching into 2026 or beyond. The other view is that improving PMI means liquidity is coming back faster, which could accelerate the whole cycle.

What's notable is institutional positioning. A Coinbase survey showed 74 percent of institutional investors expect crypto prices to rise in the next 12 months, with 73 percent planning to increase their digital asset exposure in 2026. That kind of conviction is worth paying attention to.

The expansion signal is encouraging if it actually translates to lower interest rates and easier financial conditions. That's historically been the fuel for broader crypto participation. Though geopolitical risks and U.S. regulatory moves are still wildcards that could shift the timeline either way.

So when is the next crypto bull run? Looks like we might already be in the early stages, if you're reading the macro signals right.