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I’ve noticed that many traders simply cannot read trends correctly – and that’s exactly what costs them the most money. The good news: With a few simple rules, the whole game becomes much clearer.
Let’s start with the most important thing: In bullish markets, the same pattern always occurs. The price continuously forms higher highs and higher lows – that’s your signal that it’s heading upward. The opposite is seen in bearish trends, where the price produces lower highs and lower lows. Sounds simple, but most people completely overlook it.
The trick is to look at the right timeframe. Always start with the larger charts – daily or weekly charts. What looks chaotic on a smaller timeframe always follows the direction of the larger timeframe in the end. So, you can use the smaller fluctuations to position yourself within the big trend.
A bullish trend is unmistakable when the price never falls below its previous lows. That’s your confirmation that everything is still intact. The same works for bearish phases – once the price no longer reaches the previous highs, you know the bears are still in control.
Where do you enter? That’s the art. The price never moves in a straight line. There are pullbacks, consolidations – sometimes it looks like nothing is happening, but on the smaller chart, you might see a 30-percent pullback. If the price falls into the critical zone of the larger timeframe (the previous higher low in bullish trends), that can be your entry point. The goal: new highs.
In bearish markets, it’s the opposite. When the price jumps into the upper zone of the larger timeframe, you look for short signals there. The target is then new lows.
Now comes the critical part: Trends don’t last forever. And that’s where most people lose all their money. They are pessimistic; the trend turns bullish, but they don’t trust it and keep selling. Or they are optimistic; the trend turns bearish, and they buy more as prices fall.
How do you recognize a trend reversal? Using the same method. In a bullish trend, a break below the higher low is the signal – from that point, you should become skeptical. Some take profits then, others open short positions. It depends on your style.
Conversely: if a bearish trend breaks and the price rises above the lower highs, then sentiment is turning. That’s the moment to abandon your bearish view and become bullish again.
The rule is actually brutally simple: Be optimistic when the trend is bullish. Be pessimistic when the trend is bearish. And if the trend changes, change your attitude. That’s all it takes to survive and succeed in the long run.