Will ETH’s price trend in mid-May over the past three years be repeated this year?

Today is May 13, and Ethereum’s price is trading with fluctuations around $2,300. Has anyone ever wondered this: based on historical data, how does Ethereum usually perform in mid-May? Let’s review the trend from the same period over the past three years to see whether we can find some patterns.

Mid-May 2023: At that time, the ETH price was in the $1,800–$1,900 range. Around May 12, ETH went through a pullback of about 8%, then bottomed out and rebounded on May 16, rising by roughly 15% over the following two weeks. In other words, the mid-May pullback was a good buying opportunity. The main factors driving the price up at that time were that, after the Shanghai upgrade was completed, the inflow of staking came in above expectations, and market expectations for the Cancun upgrade began to build up.

Mid-May 2024: The ETH price was in the $2,900–$3,000 range (higher than it is now). That year, from May 13 to May 17, ETH produced a V-shaped reversal—first falling and then rising. The total price fluctuation over the five days reached 12%, but in the end the closing price was basically the same as at the start of the week. At that time, the main market contradiction was the repeated tug-of-war around expectations of ETF approval, which caused the price to swing violently but without a clear direction. In other words, mid-May 2024 was a highly volatile range-bound market.

Mid-May 2025: The ETH price was in the $2,600–$2,700 range. Around May 13 that year, ETH experienced a mild decline of about 6%, and then quickly rebounded after the Federal Reserve released dovish signals on May 15. Within a week it recouped its losses and set a new high. The key catalyst at that time was improvement in the macro environment.

By observing these three years, you can find an interesting commonality: in mid-May, Ethereum almost always shows a pattern of “a pullback first, then stabilization,” and the pullback is usually within 5%–10%. So far this year, ETH has pulled back from last week’s high of $2,415 to the current $2,300, a decline of about 4.8%—the magnitude is slightly smaller than in the prior three years. If the historical pattern holds, the current price may already be nearing the bottom of this round of pullback area, and the probability of stabilization and rebound afterward is increasing.

Of course, history won’t simply repeat itself. Different variables this year include: slower inflows of Ethereum spot ETF funds, intensified competition from Layer2, and the ongoing diversion of capital from public chains such as Solana. But most of these factors have already been reflected in the current price.

On Polymarket, the probability of “above $2,300 on May 13” is about 52%, and the market overall is cautiously optimistic. Combining the seasonal pattern with the current technical setup, I think the probability that today’s ETH holds above $2,300 is relatively high, and there is also a fairly high chance of a modest close up. Specific outlook: the closing price is in the $2,310–$2,340 range, and the intraday low will not be lower than $2,275.

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