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Yesterday, the US CPI came in higher than expected at 3.8%, up from the previous 3.3%.
Looking at Core CPI however, the trend is actually declining.
Core CPI excludes food and energy prices as they are highly volatile, making it a cleaner proxy for demand.
Headline CPI, however, includes food and energy prices. Since the war drove energy prices up, that's why we saw a massive spike in March and April.
So why does this matter? Because this puts the Fed in a difficult position on interest rate decisions.
Do they ignore the headline and cut rates? Or do they hold rates to cool inflation, but risk pressuring the economy and risk assets?
Either way, pay attention to US CPI. The sooner it cools down, the higher the chance of a rate cut.