On-chain data analysis — Whales quietly accumulating near 2300

On-chain signals reveal: $2300 has become the whales' "psychological anchor"

Today, we won't discuss candlestick charts; let's look at on-chain data. Ethereum's current price appears calm on the surface, but some details on the chain are quietly changing.

First, look at exchange net flows. In the past 24 hours, centralized exchanges have seen a net outflow of about 42k ETH, up 67% from the previous day. This is the third consecutive day of net outflows, with the outflow amount gradually increasing. Usually, tokens moving from exchanges to wallets indicate holders prefer long-term holding rather than short-term selling, which can provide potential support for the price. Notably, several addresses have single withdrawal amounts between 1,000 and 5,000 ETH, likely indicating medium to large investors "accumulating."

Next, consider the distribution of holder addresses. According to on-chain data platforms, the number of addresses holding 1,000–10,000 ETH increased by 9 in the past week, the largest weekly increase in nearly a month. Meanwhile, the growth of retail addresses holding fewer than 10 ETH has slowed. This "concentration of chips among large holders" trend often appears at bottom or stage-bottom areas. Of course, whether $2300 is the absolute bottom is uncertain, but at least it shows this price level has some attraction for whale-level funds.

Additionally, active addresses and new addresses both saw small rebounds of 5% and 3% yesterday, ending four consecutive days of decline. Although the rebound is modest, it is a noteworthy "sign of stabilization." On-chain gas fees remain low at 8–15 Gwei, indicating relatively low on-chain activity, a cooling of meme coin hype, and signs of funds flowing back into mainstream coins.

The probability of "above $2300" on Polymarket is currently 52% vs. 48%, a very close gap, reflecting significant market disagreement. Based on on-chain data, I believe there is strong buying support around $2300. ETH is likely to hold this level today, possibly even rebounding slightly later to the $2325–$2340 range. Of course, if Bitcoin suddenly drops below $60k, ETH may not be immune, but the probability of that seems low at the moment.

My prediction: On May 13, ETH's closing price will be between $2310 and $2340.