So here's something worth paying attention to - the ISM Manufacturing PMI just hit 52.7, the highest level since 2022. For context, that means we're officially in expansion territory after almost three years of contraction. And honestly, this matters more for crypto than most people realize.

Historically, when manufacturing activity picks up like this, we tend to see crypto rallies follow. Look back at 2013, 2017, and 2021 - all those bull runs happened during similar macroeconomic recoveries. Better manufacturing data usually signals improved liquidity conditions, which flows into risk assets across the board, including digital assets.

The timing question everyone's asking - when will crypto bull run start in earnest - depends on which framework you believe. There are basically two camps right now.

First camp sticks with the traditional halving cycle model. Bitcoin had its April 2024 halving, then consolidated, and rallied to new highs in 2025. If history repeats, we could see the major peak extend into later 2026 or beyond. It's the playbook that's worked before.

Second camp is looking at the macro picture. Raoul Pal's been vocal about this - he sees crypto following the business cycle more than the halving schedule. His take is that this cycle runs on a five-year timeline, which would put the ISM peak around 2026. Basically saying the current expansion sets the stage for what comes next.

What's interesting is institutional money seems to be positioning for upside. A recent survey showed 74 percent of institutional investors expect crypto prices to rise within the next 12 months, and 73 percent are planning to increase their exposure to digital assets in 2026. That's real conviction from the smart money.

Of course, liquidity conditions and external factors still matter. If interest rates ease, that typically accelerates crypto participation. But geopolitical developments and regulatory moves in the US can shift things quickly too. Worth staying tuned to how those play out.

The bull run timeline is shaping up to be somewhere between traditional cycle expectations and this newer macro-driven narrative. Either way, the setup looks interesting from here.